The results are in! On both platforms, a majority of those responding believe Mastodon will outlive Twitter. The ratio, however, is very different. On Twitter, 58% believe it. On Mastodon, 90%.
Also, the poll got 19 votes on Twitter and 62 on Mastodon, despite my lower follower count on Mastodon. I suspect this is because everyone on Mastodon has opinions about Twitter and only a minority of people on Twitter have opinions about Mastodon.
For what it's worth, I agree with the majority, for reasons that have already been articulated in the comments, on both platforms. Twitter is a private company; the only organization running Twitter servers is Twitter itself, which makes it a single point of failure.
On the other hand, who knows? We don't really have a lot of data on the longevity of social media sites. Some of the ones widely regarded as "dead" are still around.
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