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Here’s the thing about , kids. It’s got a mortality of less than half of SARS. Not great, but it’s basically like pneumonia, and aims for people who are susceptible to that. Perspective is your friend. Even if it goes full pandemic, by far most of you will be fine.

For reasons, if I get the coronavirus, I’d probably be toast. So if I’m not freaking out about Wuhan coronavirus, maybe the stock market and asinine media should take a chill pill, too. 💁🏽‍♀️

@Shufei The tobacco companies aren't likely to recover. Smokers are especially at risk.

@cosullivan I wondered about this, and if it will have a much lighter mortality outside China, where many people still puff away on gross cigarettes like chimneys. That, and just breathing in many towns is pretty much sucking on a tailpipe.

I can’t be anywhere near tobacco smoke. Or Chinese cities, haha. It does quite a number on me. So maybe all shall be well.

@Shufei @cosullivan the mortality rate is 1% outside of Wuhan/Hubei where it's much higher (3~5% last I heard?) because the medical system in that region collapsed under the weight of demand. Honestly the way the government quarantined Hubei without adequate medical infrastructure and supplies should count as a crime against humanity, fuck them.

@lj_writes @cosullivan Trust the PRC to botch it with overreaction. I don’t know from Hubei medical system, but the care elsewhere is able if grossly underfunded. The crime is deep in that the medical system hasn’t had a major investment since the iron rice bowl days, I figure. Maybe this will wake up some of the more responsible sorts in the regime. I won’t hold my breath.

@Shufei @cosullivan Yeah I don't think there was any reason for things to get as bad as they did in Hubei if the quarantine had been done with enough planning and resource concentration. Maybe the measure itself was necessary, idk, but the citizens and personnel should have been treated much much better.

@lj_writes @Shufei @cosullivan inadequate supplies like building two hospitals from the ground up in less than two weeks? shut up about "crimes against humanity", you just want to be racist.

@felix @Shufei @cosullivan Oh look at this idiot thinking buildings alone are medical infrastructure. Inadequate supplies like people collapsing waiting 8 hours to be tested? Like doctors being told not to drink water because they'd have to change their protective gear if they go to the bathroom, and there wasn't enough? Imagine thinking that it's "racist" not to have your nose up Xi's ass and give an actual shit about the Chinese people who suffer from his misrule.

@Shufei I think its good the stock market is freaking out. Maybe it's invisible sky man's way of pulling the plug on certain billionaires running for office.

@curufuin You think so? Hmm... How would that work? It is certainly a woeful auspice for him.

@Shufei Well what I mean is your Bloombergs and your Trumps lose a lot of assets they have invested when the stock market goes down. Anything that hurts them is cool with me at this point. I'm not saying they will both lose a consequential amount of wealth, the rich always find a way to stay rich, but if it turns into their crisis and becomes more important to them or it chips away at the resources they otherwise use to attack Bernie, I'll take it.

@curufuin That’s just, thanks for explaining. I mostly worry about currency or price upsets. The stock market can take a leap, except that these rich people play with food markets and such, which can starve out millions.

@Shufei ✌🏼 @Darius Kazemi

“It’s got a mortality of less than half of SARS”

This virus isn't even a toddler yet. Just wait until it learns to walk.

@mike @Shufei My understanding is that viruses don't generally increase in mortality *rate*? Unless you are claiming that the virus is going to mutate into a new virus?

@darius @mike I held back on that, but that was my wonder, too. If anything, the coronavirus should peater out a bit as it settles in.

@carcinopithecus @darius @mike Hahaha, yes, spot on, old chum. The histrionics think of epidemiology as a game of Pokemon. Haha.

@Shufei @carcinopithecus @mike this article (ignore the headline) makes the case that specifically due to its relatively low mortality rate, covid-19 could become a new seasonal virus (infecting lots of people but usually to no lasting effect) but with 2x to 10x the number of global deaths as influenza

Not so much "you get this virus and die apocalyptically" but "this is a new, nasty, 2x deadly flu that might kill a few million a year (vs maybe .5M worldwide from flu)"

theatlantic.com/health/archive

@darius @carcinopithecus @mike Thanks, this is a worthy analysis. Sad if it gains such a foothold, but at least it won’t be apocalyptic. It seems we are returning to the days of various poxes carrying people off.

@mike The point stands. There’s been plenty of data streams on it from official sources over the months to get a reasonable picture of virulence.

@Shufei @mike If it was as virulent as the flu, wouldn't you see a lot more infections by now?

I'm looking at the confirmed numbers from the Singapore ministry of health, and they're pretty low.

I was thinking that if the symptoms are sometimes so mild that people don't seek medical attention, then you'd see many more cases that are not linked to other, known cases. But that doesn't seem to happen at least here in Singapore.

moh.gov.sg/covid-19

@loke @mike Right, astute point; something is not quite jibing with the picture of symptom to virulence. If this is a “super bioweapon”, as a troll just suggested, it’s a pretty poor one, haha.

@carcinopithecus @loke @mike Haha, yes, watch the rabbit holes. They spin tighter and tighter and then nothing makes sense at all.

FWIW, the PRC simply aren’t that good at X-Files type stuff. Oh, they are smart about technics. And the Deng era architects set up an able enough regime to surf history a bit. But there is a huge Keystone Kops factor to these people. They really are nose picking parvenu peasants, heaps of them. I don’t credit them with cloak and dagger as much as western media.

@carcinopithecus Right, it’s the psychology of the bully at work. Bullies simply aren’t very imaginative. PRC have a cop mentality, and not even a fun Hollywood buddy movie cop... Not even a white shirt cop. A blue shirt cop. The logic of truncheon and wall: withering shouts and withering silence.

@mike One thing that #SARS-CoV-2 has that original SARS-CoV didn't: It is contagious before it is symptomatic. So even with its lower mortality rate, it infects a lot more people, resulting in a higher body count.

@Shufei yeah the basic prescription for this DEMONIC SUPERVIRUS FROM HELL😱 is... bed rest at home, with isolation procedures to prevent contagion to household members and medical intervention to relieve symptoms and any secondary infections (pneumonia being a big one, as you said). It sucks, as a flu will, and is dangerous for vulnerable individuals like you who should get the bulk of medical attention and resources, but there's a certain gap between hype and reality here 🤷‍♀️

@lj_writes @Shufei There is also the risk that if something much worse comes along, people will ignore proper safety protocols because the last one wasn't as bad as they feared.

@loke
I doubt it. Just in the last two decades, we had at least 4 fear mongering epidemics that never amounted to anything outside of the "primary area", and every time people still overreact.
@lj_writes @Shufei

@lj_writes I’m not sure what the game is with the histrionics. Maybe they are trying to test the systems for a real superbug someday? I worry for the “cry wolf” effect.

@Shufei

Take a chill pill! China Military incompetently lets a well documented escape into the world from a P4 biological weapons lab, called the Wuhan Institute Of Virology, with no one having immunity (meaning you WILL catch -19) and designed to kill males at a 80% higher rate and designed not to have a cure and we are supposed to just let that slide like the mainstream media is doing! Why do you think they are so panicked.

@BlueMonkey Sigh, go back to Birdsite or 4chan or whatever, kid...

@Shufei

1. Don't know what 4chan is

2. Never used twitter/facebook/snapchat/instagram et. al.

3. Be like trump throw insults and provide no facts

4. Everything I said is based on medical research from the best virologists on the planet and published in Lancet.

5. I am not a kid

Look at that ran out of fingers on that hand 🔥 🎤

@Shufei

Lastly no one and I mean no one hopes to be more wrong about more than I

I'm not medically trained, but my readings on the Spanish Flu suggest that mutations were largely responsible for its long term devastation. I guess there's some detail here that is open to interpretation. I haven't seen suggestions that the mortality rate changed as it mutated, but the ability of the virus to spread in humans was enhanced and led to more infections and hence more deaths than the earlier strains. Syphillis (which is a bacterium and not a virus) actually changed its character *and* mortality rate when it mutated coming back to Europe from the New World. So I'll just say I don't know and do your own research.

What we found out with the recent bushfires was that even though our house is still standing, our lives were changed dramatically. Friends lost their houses. Friends of friends died. So raw mortality numbers don't tell the whole story. This is going to come down to how you and your family and community hold together and how your lives will change (or not) when/if the disease passes through your town. There's a pretty good chance that if this thing circles the globe somebody you know will die. Do you know anybody that is expendable? I sure don't.

@Shufei I've said earlier that I believe that we're currently in the middle of the end of the outbreak. About 1/3rd of all people infected have either died or recovered, and infection rates are at an all-time low. Currently very slow. IMO, it'll never be a pandemic.

@Lofenyy I’m not sure, but hope you are right.

It does point up the problem... Eventually there will be a nasty bug pandemic. And the world is not ready at all. And it’s pretty late in the day not to be ready.

@Shufei I think with the way global healthcare is going, while the UN isn't co ordinated, I think we're going to be fine in the grande scheme. I think we have things like global heating and the plastics issue to worry about.

If you look deep into my post history, you can find my past predictions and see how accurate I was. I'd say I was pretty good for someone with nothing but a calculator and a very basic understanding of epidemiology.

@Shufei If you like, I can predict the date when the novel coronavirus will no longer be a concern, so you get to call me dumb when I'm wrong, and you get to have comfort if things go as predicted. The thing is, it'll take a while to draw something up. I'm also a bit busy with other stuff. Nevertheless, the offer is there.

@Shufei The thing that has got me worried isn't my own health. My normal health is fine, so I think if I did some how come into contact with coronavirus, I would probably be fine, but from my limited understanding, you can have coronavirus without even knowing it (ie no symptoms).

It would suck if you went to visit your grandmother, and she ends up catching it from you.

My grandmother is very old. I think it would be extremely unlikely that she would recover if she were to some how catch it.

@mhamzahkhan This is a worthwhile worry... Yes, it is a good reminder that all such flus and things are dangerous. People really need to start quarantining themselves and not “toughing it out” at work or errands. We need to slow down transmission chains.

I hope your grandma is alright. Please take care, both of you. 🙆🏽‍♀️💖

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