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@benroyce I wouldn't have a problem with China deploying as part of a peacekeeping force. Indeed I'd welcome them.

Several reasons:

1. It shows that they have a stake in what is happening.

2. It would piss off Putin and maybe China would try to discourage Russia from breaking any truce.

3. It would REALLY, REALLY piss off the Great Orange and hopefully make him realise that the world can do without the USA in many things.

@X31Andy

part of me thinks #china is getting #outerManchuria and not #taiwan

and part of me thinks some in china know that

but it would be a quiet game. and maybe that quiet game is happening

fuck #imperialism in general

but i'm going to play the world's tiniest violin if rabidly #ethnofascist #imperialist #russia loses on the terms it started

@benroyce @X31Andy Who nukes whom first, and over what?

@Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

russia took crimea with "little green men": unaffiliated troops

turn around on that tactic would be hilarious

but it doesn't have to happen that way

china already dominates outer manchuria demographically and economically

it doesn't have to be all out war, de facto world understanding of the obvious is all that has to happen

let the ethnofascists and imperialists in moscow whine all they want

they are approaching impotence on the matter, and many other matters

@benroyce @X31Andy Impotent is a strong word for a country that is launching short-range ballistic missiles with multiple conventional warheads almost daily, and is still in possession of a large arsenal of nuclear weapons in various sizes - oh, and with a demonstrated willingness to explode nukes on their own continent, upwind of a big chunk of their own people.

I would not trust that if you push Russia into an impossible position, all they will do is whine.

@benroyce @X31Andy Russia is a war state, they can only survive if they stay at war. Until now, Putler's red lines have been empty threats because he has had to deal with the fear of retaliation under the American nuclear umbrella. He no longer has that fear. It's possible he's got to be afraid of the UK and French retaliation, but I think if he had to use a nuke to back off China, he would, and he would turn around and tell the EU to mind their own business, and they would.

@Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

yes, they are nothing but a war state now

and they are being ground down

at a slow rate, but a steady rate nonetheless

and after they are ground down enough, they have literally nothing, but a giant implosion

it's not happening soon, but long term, it's an inevitability

@benroyce @X31Andy I hear you. Everyone keeps saying that. They forget that his piss-slave is about to lift sanctions and gut the US economy to help him out.

@Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

well yes

but "us support" is now a joke

both russia and the usa are now incoherent undependable farces

you don't build anything on that

you're just describing details of an ongoing death spiral

@benroyce @X31Andy except chaos

@Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

then recognize "russia stronk" is true today, but also, it is going away

@Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

zero argument

and i'm saying china and europe both recognize that

i'm not saying it's a going to be unicorns and rainbows, and never remotely implied that

i'm just pointing out where the bumpy road is leading

@benroyce @X31Andy Fair enough.

I can't disagree with any assessment right now, I just don't see how we get out of this without someone feeling the need to demonstrate that they are still not to be fucked with. Hell, it might even be us, who knows? And when that happens, all bets are off, we get exactly the kind of dangerous free-for-all that the nuclear umbrella was invented to prevent.

@hakona @Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

you're speaking as if the idea of usa support is not also a fucking joke now

and i am not saying any of this is happening tomorrow

i am looking 10-20 years down the road

@benroyce OK, so Europe has got to keep itself together for a while. We've got to keep Slovakia, Italy, Poland, Germany from sliding Hungary's way. We've got to remind Spain and Portugal that fascism is real and we need to put serious money into defence. (They ought to know!) We've got to keep Farage and "Tommy Robinson" at bay.
All of that looks a bit touch-and-go at the moment.
@Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

@benroyce Hmm... maybe doable. All depends on China, I guess. @Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

@hakona @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott China wants stability, security and guaranteed access to materials/food. Mass famines are still in living memory.

Historically they have not been expansionist except where they border Russia. I don't think things have changed too much.

With that in mind Europe could (cautiously) do a deal with them leaving Russia to sort their own issues out on the border and Trump to froth at the mouth as he realises he is becoming an irrelevance.

@X31Andy @hakona @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott

So the invasions of Tibet, India, Vietnam and the military expansion in the South China Sea don't count? And that's just since the communists took over China.

@VikingChieftain @X31Andy @hakona @Wyatt_H_Knott

If China keeps stealing glaciers from India and sandbars from the Philippines, China can go fuck itself.

If China coopts Outer Manchuria from Russia I'll throw them a parade myself.

@benroyce Let's hope you're right. On a positive note, the leader of the main (if you squint so you can't see the Putin-versteher) opposition party said she's up for a proper debate on Norway becoming full member of the EU. On a negative note, that could just make it so the Putin-versteher cement their status as the largest party on the right.
@Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

@hakona @Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy

europe i believe in you

i kind of have to

we'll do our best over here to unfuck the usa

hopefully see you in 2029 on those terms

or at least stall with a 2027 big dem showup

gotta get the nonvoters to get off their fucking asses

@benroyce @hakona @Wyatt_H_Knott

I remember someone saying that if they voted him in they would never need to vote again.

How sure are you about 2029?

@X31Andy @benroyce @hakona I'm not even sure about the midterms and theyre only a year away

@benroyce @X31Andy @hakona To be clear, I'm not going down without a fight. Even if doing shit comics is all I can do for the moment, I'll keep doing it. I also think it's key to remember that some of us have lives and actions we're taking off of soc media that are never going to be discussed here. So I for one am not quick to judge someone for expressing despair - it's kind of what we do here, looking for support and reassurance.

@Wyatt_H_Knott @hakona @X31Andy

shame of tsushima sent russia into civil war

shame of afghanistan sent the ussr into extinction

the shame of ukraine strong is still playing out

we don't see the real russia, all media is controlled

i could be wrong

maybe too many russians are ethnofascist zombies

but even they can get frustrated

the arab spring in recent memory- strongmen few doubted evaporated overnight

syria finally played out with, note: russia's decay

it's slow

but it can happen

@benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @hakona @X31Andy My read is that this comes down to how much money China--and as @blogdiva has reminded us, Saudi Arabia--have to burn propping Russia up. (Throw in performative BS by Turkey, yada yada yada.) And...no one should take their eyes off of India. When we see them get into binding handshakes with China, it's a new ballgame.

@dnkboston @Wyatt_H_Knott @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva

sure but who knows how any of this will play out

all hail the coming india-usa world axis

i'm pulling that out of my ass but my point is simple:

fundamental things are shifting no one can say for certain, so don't be too pessimistic (or too optimistic)

@benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva Has anyone started a pool yet for what this looks like in three years?

Honestly, my gaze keeps shifting to Japan as our best bulwark. Not joking. And not something a Korean (even hapa) says lightly.

@dnkboston @Wyatt_H_Knott @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva

i don't know, but japan is very quiet

not because they aren't doing anything

and south korea isn't stupid

i expect both of them to be laser focused on taiwan

@benroyce@mastodon.social @dnkboston@mastodon.social @Wyatt_H_Knott@vermont.masto.host @hakona@im.alstadheim.no @X31Andy@mastodon.green @blogdiva@mastodon.social I hope so, because the US is almost certain to drop that ball

@zakalwe @hakona @blogdiva @X31Andy @dnkboston @Wyatt_H_Knott

the usa won't drop the ball on taiwan

the usa will grab the ball, lick it, incoherently complain about something "woke," and then shit its pants

@benroyce @zakalwe @hakona @blogdiva @X31Andy @Wyatt_H_Knott Yes

@hugoestr @X31Andy @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @hakona @blogdiva @zakalwe Did Taiwan agree to that?

@dnkboston @benroyce @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva SK is busy politically, AND busy arming most of Europe. Their armaments industry is on steroids right now. Poland alone is buying an entire Army from them.

@Wyatt_H_Knott @benroyce @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva YES! But the hit to their chips business is a lot when they're also trying to juggle warring political factions.

@dnkboston @benroyce @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva For sure, not least because all those weapons systems are heavily chip dependent.

@Wyatt_H_Knott @benroyce @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva Yes. And it's not that they've put all of their eggs into the chips basket--or Samsung--but they've put a lot there, and their deregulation/privatization is making life increasingly difficult for anyone who doesn't already have a lot of money. Relevant because it adds an extra wrinkle to every decision they make. And while they are more aligned with Taiwan than not, China is increasingly more attractive than the US now, for obvious reasons.

@dnkboston Here's hoping the European market replaces the American market for them. To be fair though, European arms sales are direct competes with the US, not China. It does make me wonder if all of Asia isn't looking at ALL of the West and thinking they'd better work out their own shit before we fuck it up for everyone.

@benroyce @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva

@Wyatt_H_Knott @benroyce @hakona @X31Andy @blogdiva I can only speak for South Korea, and not even that well, but it's my sense that they are on the make for opportunities. They have been reaching since at least the beginning of the Biden administration to capitols all over Europe, and are trying to establish ties in SA, Africa. More concerning to me is the growing closeness to petrostates.

@VikingChieftain At least they're somewhat predictable. I remember when they bid on building a highwaybridge near me some years ago, I thought that was kind of cool. They did NOT get the job, but still. Seeing the hegemon challenged was cool. Now, not so much. They will be a major problem, but we're not inviting them to our bed. Norway is still obscenely deferential though. We've got fish to sell.
@dnkboston @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy @blogdiva

@hakona @VikingChieftain @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy @blogdiva

@VikingChieftain @hakona @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @X31Andy @blogdiva Tofu dreg?

@dnkboston @VikingChieftain @hakona @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @blogdiva

The liquid remaining when you make tofu.

The response to the comment about shoddy construction is to properly project manage things. I've seen all the same issues in the middle east over the last 20 years.

@X31Andy @VikingChieftain @hakona @benroyce @Wyatt_H_Knott @blogdiva thanks for explaining. And of course the response has to reference tofu, as if Northeast Asian countries have a special kind of shoddy construction.