Here's my prediction for mastodon:
* wave of new users, most will go back to twitter
* enough will stay to keep things interesting and development will proceed apace.
* Valid feedback will be iterated on. instance-independent Identity, federated search, instance migration, performance tuning and bug fixes, etc.
* As it matures, it will grow.
Ultimately, a focus on keeping the community welcoming and easing the barriers to adoption will pay off.
@EricJFisher we'll probably see meta-instance pacts that share block-lists for users and instances to make it easier for like-minded instances to federate.
@chriseppstein that is pretty much what has been going on for the past year or so.
@inmysocks I believe it. It shows in the level of polish already present. New tech takes ~5 years to go mainstream. it's practically an invariant.
@chriseppstein I wouldn’t mind if it stayed smaller (way smaller) than twitter to be honest
@chriseppstein not doom and gloom enough to appeal to the people who have FOMO tho
@chriseppstein Or tribal warfare between instances. It could go either way at this point 😀
@chriseppstein Those are good predictions. In any new space the early adopters and visionaries will stick around during the shake-down tour - once that's over, if the product "crosses the chasm", so to speak, the early majority users will sweep in and discover a pretty mature experience that has hardened along both technological and philosophical lines. That's when the sparks will fly.
@chriseppstein My hope is that the "barriers to entry" on running your own node for family/friends goes *way* down and we get a shitload more of those...
(and I'm guilty of "being lazy and not doing that" I know)
@chriseppstein I hope you're right - I'm more skeptical.
@chriseppstein I can only hope such happens, and I certainly hope the instance admins get the love and support they need to keep their part of the Fediverse active and in play.
@chriseppstein just me or this is what happens with every social network?
@chriseppstein Some prominent Linux kernel devs sticked with Google+. I wonder, hyperbolically speaking, will every subculture eventually adopt its own group-message/broadcast platform?
@chriseppstein I don't see Twitter vs Mastodon as a major thing. Twitter is far too important for me to even consider leaving. It is a rich environment where I've built a list of a few thousand interesting people who I follow.
Mastodon shows promise, but I've been to this movie a few times including identi.ca then status.net then pump.io and diaspora (I may have missed that one, likewise GNU Social. So we shall see.
Mastodon will survive. But will it thrive?
@chriseppstein As one of those "new users" I agree. I'm sure Mastodon will go through community pains (like all services) but where other networks becoming cesspools of marketing and advertising I feel like any instances permitting such abuse will get dropped by other instances greatly limiting the overall impact.