Your Sunday dose of existentialism:
"When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable."
@cypnk we're not, but oh well
@cypnk idk if this is what ur tryign to say but if we're the only intelligent life to develop thats good for us since it means their isnt some civ killing force that is the reason for the lack of civs in the galaxy (like a barrier that a civ most overcome to survive that none surpass)
@Daylight Something like that, but a bit more positive
Yes, it's bad we're alone (as far as we can tell), but that also means our horizons reach into a greater distance. We have space to expand to a multi-planet, or even multi-galaxy, species and our only limitation is ourselves
We can control ourselves. Not alien species
Bad news:
We're probably alone in the universe
Good news:
We're probably alone in the universe
@cypnk ive already seen 3 ufos... ever since then i just cant accept we are alone as even remotely true.
@davidpgil Aaaand, there I go down another rabbit hole!
@cypnk i just bought a pair of this specific recommended pair of night vision goggles that ufo watchers use. ill report my results as soon as i try em! 🤩
@davidpgil Awesome!
BTW I forget the name of it, but there was a pretty big UFO related forum on the web in the late 90s. Lots of folks were posting links to archives and research there. I wonder if it's still around
@cypnk ive resolved recently to put more effort in seeing for myself if things are true or not. info out there is just too unreliable. for the longest time i saw those 3 ufos and just took that as 100% real - i even haf a friend who can confirm this. he was right next to me. i want to go deeper with this though, and try to arrange hailing one if i can. sounds crazy, but worth a shot!
@cypnk I believe in space zoo hypothesis. But anyway, we should be precautions as Stephen Hawking has warned.
@cypnk Optimists believe we live in the best of possible worlds.
Pessimists are concerned optimists might be right about that.
“New model predicts that we’re probably the only advanced civilization in the observable universe”
I don’t think the universe owes us company, but I’m still waiting for more conclusive evidence
Humans, being a gregarious species, may find this notion uncomfortable. I’d say it’s an opportunity for us to become multiple spacefaring species instead
@cypnk There always has to be a "first" civilization, right?
But we've only been searching for radio signals what, 40 years max? I think we need to search for hundreds of years if not millenia until a possible signal is found, and even longer to respond, and longer still to wait for their response...
Maybe we're just really impatient.
@siraben The issue is that radio signals aren’t that great for long distance detection on those distances. Even our earliest broadcasts would have attenuated to barely above background in a couple of light years, let alone travel to a couple of hundred
Ironically, we’re also broadcasting less into space as technology developed. More focused and efficient transmitters mean less noise in space. And we reached that state in under 80 years
If we detect aliens, it probably won’t be by radio
@cypnk We should be sending more messages then. A one time message isn't gonna give us exposure. Ideally it should be powerful broadcasts (maybe laser?) of radio waves every couple of months.
Perhaps aliens are on the same problem; trying to look for other intelligent life, and not brodcasting much.
Message content is perhaps the hardest of all things. How does one structure a message meant for an unknown recipient? What to send? A picture? A program? Our science? Makes my head hurt...
There are some who assume that all rational actors reach the Dark Forest conclusion and go bush figuratively. The ones who don't probably got Berserker-ed. Or maybe from a sociological perspective reaching a stable equilibrum for long-term space travel is hard. Or maybe at the cosmological scales of time measurement a true spacefaring race could be rare and might only emerge once or twice every million or so years.
Like the mentats would say, NOT ENOUGH DATA FOR A PRIME COMPUTATION.
@cypnk Here's something else that might fill you with dread.
That said civilizations destroyed themselves, and we are next.
@sustainingsquid I'm a bit more hopeful. Yes, the odds are against us, but they've been against us since our ancestors were little critters hiding from giant dinosaurs
I think knowledge "of" civilizations is harder to destroy now than a thousand years ago even if the details can still be lost. And basic information and technology is also harder to remove from existence
I do think our future is in multiple space-faring species than one thing we today call "humanity"
@cypnk
So sad...
@cypnk personally, I hate thinking that humans are alone in the universe. The only thing that gives me any comfort in this scenario is the idea that, if we last long enough to travel the stars, we could become the precursor civilization that is a common trope in science fiction.
@sadie_bunny That's possible. It's important to keep up hope. The one thing working in our favor is our insatiable curiosity. It's impossible to contain us to this one planet so excursions even beyond our solar system is only inevitable
If you want to engage the metaphysics hyperdrive there is always the appealing theory that species "sublime" after reaching a certain level of development. Whether it's something as disappointing as a bog-standard wormhole to another place or the favorite sci-fi trope of energy ghosting is a matter of discussion over large amounts of alcohol. 🍻
By the way, some authors have done pretty funky things with advanced species that have low energy footprints. Check out the short "Gödel's Sunflowers" by Stephen Baxter, for one.
@SlightDashOfColour @sadie_bunny @cypnk Blindsight by Peter Watts, also.
@cypnk There are two possibilities. Either we are alone in the universe, or we are not. I can't tell which one is scarier.
I always love the seeding algorithms in 4x strat games where you pick an initial setup for your galaxy with only 1 other AI player. The AI will off course be "helpfully" located on the other far side of the galactic map. It's the classic "2 guys enter, 1 guy leaves" as both sides frantically gobble up as much real estate as possible before first contact occurs.
@SlightDashOfColour @cypnk Yeah, if they are anything like us, we are doomed. Both.
@cypnk we’re the best there is and we suuuuuck
From a scientific and curiosity perspective, this is bad. But in terms of growth as a species, this is good for humanity
We can be the arbiters of our destiny and mould ourselves as we see fit. That's an enormous responsibility that I'm not sure we're ready for yet, but it also means our success in space or failure to thrive is within our control