dem primary, nh primary 

New Hampshire's primary is a more normal secret ballot primary, rather than Iowa's caucus.

With a whole 27 votes in from 3 precincts out of 297, The Klobb is in a commanding lead at 8 votes to Bernie and Warren, tied at 4.

dem primary, nh primary, threatening energy, memes 

I probably don't have to remind you of this but you'd better Temple Run to the polls and vote for Bernie or you're going to have to Temple Run for your life.

dem primary 

It's worth a mention that for the very first time this entire primary season, Bernie is first place in the polling average: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/p

dem primary, nh primary 

And Biden has already left NH for South Carolina, skipping his own post-primary party. Nice! twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/st

dem primary, nh primary 

Link probably won't work, but: fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/

Basically - some 538 staffers went out canvassing with Butt Greg and since it was a Monday, almost no one was home, the notable exception being a family that all firmly supported Bernie.

You love to see it.

dem primary, nh primary 

More broadly, Democratic voters think that Bernie now has the best chance of beating Trump. He weighs in at an average of opined likeliness of 60%, edging out Biden, who has fallen to 58.7%. No one else breaks 50%, including Mayo Pete.

fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/

dem primary, nh primary 

Meanwhile results are starting to come in hhhhahaahahahahaha paniiicccccc

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dem primary, nh primary 

Oh gods 6% reporting and Bernie's up by 3.5% and 500 votes

gods, linear time is SUCH bullshit

dem primary, nh primary, epistemology meta 

To be clear, I'm not panicking because I don't want Bernie to do well - I do. I REALLY do. I'm panicking because having my hopes dashed *shatters* me, so I try to avoid hoping for anything in particular, and because if Bernie's doing well, the room for a pleasant surprise is minimal. I'll probably be a good deal happier during the Nevada and SC polls, where he hadn't been forecast to do as well.

dem primary, nh primary 

With 8.75% reporting, Bernie leads Buttigieg by ~7.5% and 2300 votes with surprise current 3rd place Klobuchar.

According to 538's predictions, if the final results reflect this, this would give Bernie a 53%(!) chance of winning outright, a 25% chance of a contested convention of some kind, Biden a 13% chance, and Butt Greg a solid 2%.

dem primary, nh primary, implied weed 

Alright, I'm breaking out the fox treats, because I'm nervous and excited and I'm going to get my math done soon enough.

dem primary, nh primary 

With a little under an eighth reporting, Bernie leads by almost 8% and over 3k votes.

dem primary, nh primary 

Yang has suspended his campaign.

dem primary, nh primary 

Farewell, my dear sweet problematic fave. Can we get some F's in the chat for Yang Gang?

dem primary, nh primary 

Michael Bennet has also dropped out of the race. If you don't know who that was, don't worry! Neither does anyone else.

dem primary, nh primary 

With a little over a third reporting, Bernie leads by about 5% and over 5k votes. I'm preparing to break out the framboise.

dem primary, nh primary 

The centrists at NBC are predicting that neither Biden nor Warren will get even a single candidate in New Hampshire.

dem primary, nh primary 

Hm. The Klobucharge appears to be driven by college-educated white women. I wouldn't have expected the wine mom vote to be so powerful!

dem primary, nh primary 

With almost half of likely votes counted, Bernie continues to lead by about 3.5% and over 5k votes. The NYT's analysis seems a little hesistant to update on data (as opposed to 538's overexcitement) as evidenced by its prediction of Klobuchar at 13% probability to win, and even *it* has Bernie at 53% probability over Butt Greg's 34%.

dem primary, nh primary 

Nate Silver agrees with me. fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/

Briefly: Prediction markets give Bernie a 90% chance, in contrast to The Needle's low 50s%. Upshot's using a count from the AP, which has fewer recorded votes than other sites.

dem primary, nh primary 

Deval Patrick is probably about to drop out.

dem primary, nh primary 

WHO ARE YOU

who ARE you, mystery hundreds of voters for people who have literally dropped out???

dem primary, nh primary 

I consider it important to remember that Butt Greg will not, in fact, be doing anywhere NEAR this well in Nevada or South Carolina. He needed an actual win here, and a convincing one, to have any real chance of continuing.

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re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news one of the few non-Bernie candidates i respect even a little

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news lol get fucked biden.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news a commanding fifth.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news also this site is real slick.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt Yeah, whoever did this for the NYT did a good job of it!

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news lol on the about page, subtitle: "The state has its challenges, but it’s no Iowa."

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news anyway this tool is neat.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt @fox_news At least it doesn't kick me out and force me to register like it did during Iowa.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@Aradia @starkatt Ublock Origin is your friend

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt :airhorn: :airhorn: :airhorn: :airhorn:

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news ALso I just realized the model they described is exactly baysean statistics.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news just with really complex reference classes.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt YES YES YES THIS IS WHY I LIKE IT AND ENSEMBLE SIMULATION SO MUCH

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news Though, like. Spending a bit more time on this page. It's basically designed to maximize anxiety. So like. I need to chill.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt Entirely valid, I have it in another tab checking it occasionally. If you want me to check something for you, let me know!

re: dem primary, nh primary, doofy tangent 

@fox_news @starkatt Mike Bostock heads up the amazing vis department there, a fact I only really know because he writes all the tools I use for visualizing lewd furry data :P

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt I think that we can all agree that the single best part of Iowa and NH has been watching Biden, the "electability" candidate, just get fukken reamed. Like, for a dedicated centrist, he sure does seem to get publically owned a lot.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news If there's prediction market chatrooms I bet they get wild as results slowly stream in.

re: dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt Probably like the people interacting in this thread, but worse :P

dem primary, nh primary 

@fox_news hey fox this is going to be running all night, you have zero control over the outcome, and other than sharing information none of this is actionable within the scale of hours.

Breathe.

dem primary, nh primary 

@starkatt This is an excellent point and thank you for, as ever, keeping me grounded, vix. :heart:

meta, silly 

@starkatt all the same, here at Fox News, we AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

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