My weather station: "Light rain".
The sky: blue.
The sun: shining.

Apparently we can predict what you're going to buy next, but the current weather is still a mystery to us.

@fribbledom Well, if the rain was actually light, like, rays from the sun, then they were spot on.


s/predict/influence and demand/

Weather, like cows and corn, doesn't care.

DST: "hey it's an hour different now"
Cows: "you should have milked me an hour ago, now my milk is sour"
Corn: "Whatever, if you go away it will still rain and I will still make seeds and there will be more corn"
Hybrid, sterile corn: "Whatever, if you go away, the pain will end"
Weather: "LOL have a tornado and snow, I don't care if it's July, welcome to the southern hemisphere bitch"

Advertising: "Buy my chicken flavored air conditioning"
Cows: "Wow humans are dumb"
Corn: "So dumb"
Advertising: "but it worked on our focus group"
Bill Hicks: "keeeeeel yourself"

@mjd @fribbledom As a cow, I have to agree.

I don't care what humans want from me.

@fribbledom It is a weather prediction. One day, sooner or later, there will be a light rain.

@fribbledom I’ve had this recurring thought of wether climate change is messing up the climate models used for weather forecasting

@brunoph @fribbledom
Weather forecasting has never been terribly accurate. Even in a country like mine where the options are:

* Rain
* No rain

How hard can it be? kkkkk

@brunoph @fribbledom Right now due to less airline flights weather forecasters are missing a lot of data, especially high altitude winds, temp, humidity...

@fribbledom I think the data sets to train both models are hugely different in size. A single planet with only so many days for weather forecasting, compared to billions of users making purchase decisions every day in the case of user behaviour prediction.

@fribbledom Pretty soon people's phones/weather stations will be linked to their door/surveillance cameras, and those cameras will look outside and tell people what they are seeing.

@fribbledom I'm not convinced they can predict what someone is going to buy next, either. I think Silicon Valley tries to sell that scam to keep the profits rolling in. It's just another form of the Bullshit Alchemy whereby techbros transmute BS to dollars.

@outsider @fribbledom They can't. They still show ads for things i already bought/am a member in.

The algorithms are extremely simple.

@ben_bai @fribbledom My favorite story about Silicon Valley "prediction" is from when I worked at Google. Someone posted on one of the internal mailing lists that Google was showing ads for casketmakers to his 80-year-old mom or grandmother or whatever.

@outsider @fribbledom It's pretty much "what website did i visit" and "which company booked ads" connect the two with max profit. Jackpot if pays for ads and i ivsit the site. those ads are gonna follow me for years... or until i delete all cookies.

@fribbledom to be fair.

Weather systems are heavily complex and forecasts are still more accurate than predicting what people buy next

@fribbledom I've noticed that when it comes to rain within the next ~24h I'm better off checking the rain map and making my own prediction than trusting the forecast as-is.
As far as I can tell the problem where I live is that they're taking a "might it rain anywhere within the municipality" approach and it's not rare for the rain to only hit a small part of it.


The weather, like our dreams
Is never quite what it seems.
It might be better to expect
A forecast we cannot reject.

@fribbledom what? We can predict what I'm going to buy next and Amazon is still recommending me frying pans after buying a frying pan?

@fribbledom for what it’s worth, i’ve had pretty satisfactory results (for when to go out bouldering, where ‘no rain for the last 3 days’ is kinda crucial) with kachelmannwetter’s modellvergleich XL (meteologix and forecast XL for the international folks), where you get prediction data from multiple models next to each other – so it’s not just ‘we think it’ll rain this much’ but ‘5 models think it’s not going to rain at all, and 2 say it’s going to pour.’

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