1/ This thread needs a disclaimer that the world is on fire and the tech fluff may become (or slowly becoming) irrelevant. But if we survive 2020/pandemic/elections, and start seeing that the world is becoming a better place to live in, there’s some exciting stuff on the horizon.
2/ I don’t develop AR apps (yet), but interesting to see how people imagine AR productivity UI/UX before any hardware gained mainstream traction. Virtual flat surfaces with flat controls flying in the air, with only benefit those are somewhat bigger than your real screen.
3/ If waving your hands in front of a real giant screen didn’t work before (I don’t believe we’ll see a touch screen iMac), it’s hard to expect that waving hands in front of a virtual screen will. Especially for high-precision tasks w/o haptic feedback.
5/ Input fidelity plays a big role. Controls had to become bigger to become touch-friendly on mobile. In AR, tracking target is closer to the size of you hand, or at least a few fingers, especially in early stages hardware may not be powerful enough for detailed finger tracking
6/ But also, in AR you’re no longer limited to 10″ or a 15″ screen. If you have a whole table or a whole room at your disposal, why not make controls bigger? They initially may be colorful boxes to move around, but it’s a big opportunity for customization.
7/ Navigation limited to a small flat screen and navigation in AR would become totally different. With that much space, why not organize different entities in virtual boxes on a virtual shelf instead of having a ton of similar-looking 128x128 pixel icons on a 10″ screen?
8/ We may see a cottage industry of AR "furniture", which would be a throwback to desktop themes that were a thing before mobile, before everyone stopped caring how their desktop looks. Flat YouTube wouldn't make much sense in a 3D world, so expect to see some disruption there.
9/ The outcome will depend on how much control hardware vendors will have. It's exciting that Apple has hardware powerful enough to bring all this to consumers probably before the end of the decade. But will we see enough competition? Anyway, it's all just speculations
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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4/ If productivity AR apps (and maybe any AR apps in general that need complex input) ever take off, I think we’ll see the next wave of skeuomorphism. You’d manipulate something close to real objects on a table or in your room instead of flat controls on a floating flat screen.