Bet on "toy markets" - niches that look tiny now, but will be big in the future.

Because of hindsight bias, it's hard to look back at Amazon's decision to sell books online, and understand how small and uncertain the opportunity may have seemed back then. And it's difficult to look at markets that seem tiny now, and realize how fast they will grow.

It's tempting to do what everyone else does, but really huge opportunities look like risky bets on toy markets.

Reliable formula detected: They never look the same twice. Most attempts are just too obviously derivative of the last success to succeed.

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