Just a bump/reminder in case anyone follows this but didn't notice: I moved my active account to @waxwing

waxwing boosted

This is my new Mastodon profile. I will boost it from my old one, waxwing@mastodon.social

Thanks @orionwl for hosting this :)

(I consider mastodon.social to be anti-free speech, hence the move).

@orionwl @waxwing

:joy:

low-drama, hmm interesting angle ...

btw i am also against anti-free speech on the bitcoinhackers instance ('no shitcoins'). sometimes I want to talk about shitcoins, hope that's OK!

@lukedashjr
Perhaps wrong of me to say, but using patreon is at least as problematic as using twitter. Not so much ethically, but practically - if they don't like your speech, they can and will confiscate your money.

I guess in such a list, I forgot a really big one:

8. Sunk cost bias: people just stubbornly hold on to losers (for years!) because they don't want to admit the error; even when sometimes the trade comes back in their favour (which it usually doesn't), they forget the huge opportunity cost incurred.

6. Not accounting for fees, even moderately high frequency let alone day trading is killed by this unless you are very professional and cognizant of it.

7. The grand daddy of them all is basic magical thinking (I want to make tons of money therefore this works) instead of realising the market (indeed, the world) doesn't care what you want. If you don't have an edge the market will just eat you up.

.. which is beyond stupid, not only because so many greedy people actually think they can average 2%+ per day (!? any pro would tell you 1% per day is literally god tier returns and won't last even if you find it), but totally ignore the volatility of returns (which can overwhelm even healthy positive expected value, see Kelly etc.).

4. Thinking drawing lines on a chart gives you any kind of an edge.

5. Not understanding that win rate is irrelevant, what matters is EV and volatility. (3/n)

Also the guy is very honest about his stupidity. He hit one of the top "illogical behaviours of people in the market", namely:

1. Unit bias. Only willing to buy things with a nominal per-unit value that's low (like an educated person I know who refused to buy Bitcoin at 400 Yuan in 2013 because it's "too expensive" ... it's like 80000 now).
2. Taking broad media and public attention as a buying signal instead of selling.
3. Projecting possible trading success basd on "X% per day profit" (2/n)

medium.com/swlh/confessions-of

🤦‍♂️ ... the part about the Estonian village is funny though. Also the guy has the spirit of a writer, even if it does rather lack polish.

Why do otherwise intelligent people turn into such morons in the market?

(It's pure whimsy, but I remember about 12 years ago sitting exactly on the other end of that ferry terminal, with a friend visiting from Russia, and saying to her "War is coming. I can feel it". I didn't really know what I meant. Perhaps it's this, but if so, my crystal ball apparently sees a bit too far into the future!)

@mrb@todon.nl

Right. You may have (very understandably) misunderstood my flippancy; I'm one of that small minority who doesn't think "PGP is shit replace it immediately" is the correct take. I was just amused in relation to the old "Johnny can't encrypt" stuff (indeed the authors intended the joke, of course).

Here's the moment they threw the flag into the water:

youtube.com/watch?v=Y-XUuKA894

Mostly it's just sad what's happening, the world is losing what was for decades an example the highest level of culture, civilization and free trade.

(The CCP thugs are of course to blame. the people of HK are just in an impossible situation, and it's hard to blame the mainlanders when they are force fed lies for years).

waxwing boosted

@mydogisahusky

Interesting detail that most people don't know: China is almost exactly to the square kilometer the same land area as the USA, but: it has 4-5 times the population and a *vastly* smaller inhabitable area (see: the Gobi desert, for a start). 80-90% of the population is on the eastern and southern seaboards.
They would seriously struggle to feed themselves; luckily they manufacture almost everything on the planet, so, trade. I believe a lot of the ag imports are for animal feed.

@mydogisahusky Also the "suspending agricultural imports from US" news is arguably a much bigger shocker than the currency move.

@mydogisahusky

Congrats, might be the first time I got the news first on Mastodon 😂

Shit is really hitting the fan in Hong Kong too. We are possibly approaching genuinely "interesting times".

The pubkey should be considered part of the setup/fixed in advanced. Then zero knowledgeness can be proved by the indistinguishability of real and fake transcripts. Here a Schnorr sig is exactly a zero knowledge proof of knowledge.

See the post Bob is referring to, but no, it's not a valid nit.
twitter.com/BobMcElrath/status
If you don't feel like reading, it was argued that a digital sig is not a valid ZKP because the pubkey is revealed. In fact the Zero knowledgeness property is trivially demonstrable (for Schnorr) if you establish the right context.

waxwing boosted
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