And today, both GFS and ECMWF are wanting to bring the remnants of Hurricane #Florence to the UK this Sunday. Of course, it will remain extra tropical at this latitude. Won't have any true hurricane characteristics.
Observed precipitation rates from Hurricane #Florence these past 5 days. Some staggering totals there.
From NWS on Twitter, updated Hurricane #Florence rainfall totals for North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia as of 2 pm Monday September 17th 2018
Latest on #Florence - now down rated to a tropical depression. Lowest pressure 1010 mb. Sustained winds of about 30 mph inland, about 40 - 50 mph off the coast. Advisory 68 from the NHC continues to emphasise the issues this depression still poses with inland flooding across wide parts of the Carolinas. The flooding is going to prove catastrophic this coming week.
Based on what I've found for North Carolina (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Carolina_weather_records), highest rainfall associated with a tropical depression is 24.06 inches (611.124mm) at Southport. Weather Nation were reporting a few minutes ago Southport was already up to 23.75 inches (603.25) so it seems highly probable that storm total will be surpassed.
Hurricane #Florence has now been downgraded to tropical storm status in the latest NHC advisory. It was centred a few hours ago on the coast, close to the SC / NC state border. Pressure has risen to 972 mb and maximum sustained winds of 70mph. Moving west at only 4mph! This is a serious rainmaker now. I'm going to research some of the precip stats for this area because I think records could be broken.
UKMO have recently shared this picture of Typhoon #Mangkhut making landfall over the north of the Philippines. This would be equivalent of a cat-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Meanwhile in the western Pacific, the monster that is #Mangkhut is about to make landfall on the Philippians as a major typhoon.
Latest on #Florence is it made landfall at 7.15am EDT, in the vicinity of Surf City, Wilmington. Strongest wind gust was 105mph and a central pressure of 965mb. Significant rainfall and storm surge. Florence is expected to weaken to a tropical storm today and gradually move slowly SSW before moving inland. Still poses a significant threat to large areas. Now estimated to be tracking at only 4mph.
Latest visible satellite image of #Florence shows it has maintained its symmetrical core. The eye is still located slightly offshore. Reports of major damage and storm surge on social media. The right front quadrant (most powerful part of the storm) is really starting to make its impact now.
Not good news for the Carolinas. #Florence has slowed from a 15mph track to a 5mph track. Strong outburst of convection around the eye indicating some strengthening.
This could be interesting for parts of western Europe next week #Helene
First outer bands of #florence starting to sweep in.
It doesn't really matter what category the centre of #Florence will be. The impacts are going to be huge over a wide area.
Latest recon shows the core strength of #Florence has reduced to 110mph sustained (Cat 2) as a result of some shear on the southern flank yesterday. But the tropical storm wind field has increased. Potentially the impacts could be wider. Most forecast models in agreement of a slow landfall.
Some more stunning footage of #Florence from GOES-16. UK Met Office is predicting 40 inches of rainfall possible from this storm. And a recent video update I got from Mark Sudduth a few minutes ago suggested some parts of the Carolina's could be exposed to tropical storm force winds for over 24 hours, when this system makes landfall.
5pm advisory from the NHC is in. #Florence has weakened slightly today and is now estimated to be cat-3. But still remains a dangerous storm. Cirrus layers from the storm are starting to reach the US. In addition to Florence, invest 95L has been upgraded and we now have another tropical depression (Joyce) moving down from the north east.
Currently watching Mark Sudduth setting up his remote camera boxes to monitor Hurricane Florence. An extremely friendly and knowledgeable guy worth supporting on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack/posts
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