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Tesla stock shot up in response to US doing a coup in Bolivia. Turns out Bolivia has 1/6th of the world's Lithium deposits and lithium is used in the batteries Tesla produces.

@yogthos AFAIK there’s a lot of other factors going on with Tesla’s stock price to explain the rise, FWIW, and it’s been a trend since the Q3 earnings.

(Essentially, there was a surprise profit for Q3, which lead to a lot of short sellers heading for the exits, institutional buyers coming back in, and then feedback loops between short sellers and options markets.)

@yogthos I’m trying to interpret the stock movements in LIT - a fund including battery and lithium companies - to see if there’s any larger effect there (although LIT has a few percent of TSLA itself), and I’m seeing a sharp dip heading into the weekend, and then a climb this week: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LIT/

However, it’s merely climbed to levels below where it was Friday.

Zooming out further, I’m still not sure how to interpret the data, I’m not seeing anything related to Bolivian conflict.

(Additionally, the top news story I’m seeing attached to LIT on Yahoo are talking about Chile and Australia, apparently that’s where the bigger mining companies are focusing?)

@yogthos Ah, looks like future lithium contracts are in play?

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/11/bolivian-coup-comes-less-week-after-morales-stopped-multinational-firms-lithium-deal

(There’s some factual issues in that, though - ACISA doesn’t supply batteries to Tesla, Panasonic, Samsung, and LG Chem supply batteries to Tesla, and Tesla’s planning to produce batteries in-house as well (they already have Panasonic produce cells in one of their factories as it is).)

@yogthos Also, per https://www.dw.com/en/bolivia-scraps-joint-lithium-project-with-german-company/a-51100873 it looks like the lithium mining agreement that was cancelled was going to be largely sent to Germany for German automakers’ use.

Lithium is a fungible commodity, but I’d expect LIT to go down if this were how the market was interpreting the coup (as it’s full of mining companies not in Bolivia, which would see less profit from the Bolivian reserves being opened up, and therefore their stock price would go down), and it’s gone slightly up instead).

Basically I don’t think this is what’s happening.

@yogthos Oh, I don’t doubt that there’s some fuckery going on, but there’s far more German involvement in this particular resource, and the mining markets don’t seem to be reacting much to it from what I see.

@yogthos Actually looks like the markets may have reacted to the cancellation of the contract by valuing non-Bolivian mining companies more (there’s an increase in LIT’s value on November 4), but haven’t really reacted to the coup.

@yogthos fuck electric cars fuck the people who drive them and fuck musk

@yogthos Actually, the stocks went up because of higher than expected sales sales in china, but believe whatever you want.

@OchotonidKnight @yogthos
You promote gasoline cars or what? Extinction Rebellion on you...

@yogthos @OchotonidKnight
What? That's not at all what I did. I also condemn coups to steal resources, I just don't believe that's what is happening in Bolivia. There are exactly zero pieces of evidence of something like that, and a bunch of evidence saying they simply sold more cars in China. And yes, more electric cars in the most populous country is definitely a good thing - do you disagree? I wish more people were working on it.

@yogthos

How can electric cars be unrelated when you started talking about Tesla and lithium batteries? You don't see the connection? And I'm not sure if you noticed, but I was reacting to @OchotonidKnight who suggested that selling electric cars in China is not a good thing. Still don't see the connection?

@yogthos @OchotonidKnight
I still don't see any lithium conspiracy exploitation in the Bolivian elections and protests. You just nonchalantly assume it, and many people like to hear it, but the reasoning is weak to non-existent.

@yogthos @chebra And by the way, to clear up my point on the China thing, it's less that I am against China "having electric cars" and more that I do not like the taste of a company from one human rights abusing country doing business with another. There's been an awful trend of American businesses kowtowing to Chinese money as of late, in case you haven't noticed.

@yogthos @OchotonidKnight
I'm sorry, but if that's the level of logic you use, then you must be thrilled from this website: tylervigen.com/spurious-correl
I've been to Bolivia, and let me tell you, if someone can change it and make the lives of the poor people there a bit better, it would be a win for humanity as a whole. The bridge between socialist dictatorship and low quality of life is unfortunately much more travelled.

@OchotonidKnight LOL, millenial here but whatever, just block me already

@yogthos (((so isn’t this like the US “”intervening”” in the Middle East for oil deposits?)))

@yogthos
yep, Tesla is only possible wthx to US military. which is why rest of the world needs lithium alternatives.

@yogthos I see the biggest rise in stock prices around October 25, not November 10. IMO it's not needed to start unproved conspiracy theories to make a point.

Disclaimer: not a fan of #Tesla, not a fan of the US, not a fan of this coup.

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