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Tesla stock shot up in response to US doing a coup in Bolivia. Turns out Bolivia has 1/6th of the world's Lithium deposits and lithium is used in the batteries Tesla produces.

@yogthos AFAIK there’s a lot of other factors going on with Tesla’s stock price to explain the rise, FWIW, and it’s been a trend since the Q3 earnings.

(Essentially, there was a surprise profit for Q3, which lead to a lot of short sellers heading for the exits, institutional buyers coming back in, and then feedback loops between short sellers and options markets.)

@yogthos I’m trying to interpret the stock movements in LIT - a fund including battery and lithium companies - to see if there’s any larger effect there (although LIT has a few percent of TSLA itself), and I’m seeing a sharp dip heading into the weekend, and then a climb this week: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LIT/

However, it’s merely climbed to levels below where it was Friday.

Zooming out further, I’m still not sure how to interpret the data, I’m not seeing anything related to Bolivian conflict.

(Additionally, the top news story I’m seeing attached to LIT on Yahoo are talking about Chile and Australia, apparently that’s where the bigger mining companies are focusing?)

@yogthos Ah, looks like future lithium contracts are in play?

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/11/bolivian-coup-comes-less-week-after-morales-stopped-multinational-firms-lithium-deal

(There’s some factual issues in that, though - ACISA doesn’t supply batteries to Tesla, Panasonic, Samsung, and LG Chem supply batteries to Tesla, and Tesla’s planning to produce batteries in-house as well (they already have Panasonic produce cells in one of their factories as it is).)

@yogthos Also, per https://www.dw.com/en/bolivia-scraps-joint-lithium-project-with-german-company/a-51100873 it looks like the lithium mining agreement that was cancelled was going to be largely sent to Germany for German automakers’ use.

Lithium is a fungible commodity, but I’d expect LIT to go down if this were how the market was interpreting the coup (as it’s full of mining companies not in Bolivia, which would see less profit from the Bolivian reserves being opened up, and therefore their stock price would go down), and it’s gone slightly up instead).

Basically I don’t think this is what’s happening.

@bhtooefr I mean could be completely unrelated, but traditionally US has been doing coups in Latin America to get access to resources.

@yogthos Oh, I don’t doubt that there’s some fuckery going on, but there’s far more German involvement in this particular resource, and the mining markets don’t seem to be reacting much to it from what I see.

@yogthos Actually looks like the markets may have reacted to the cancellation of the contract by valuing non-Bolivian mining companies more (there’s an increase in LIT’s value on November 4), but haven’t really reacted to the coup.

@yogthos fuck electric cars fuck the people who drive them and fuck musk

@yogthos Actually, the stocks went up because of higher than expected sales sales in china, but believe whatever you want.

@OchotonidKnight @yogthos
You promote gasoline cars or what? Extinction Rebellion on you...

@chebra @OchotonidKnight how exactly did you make the leap from condeming coups to steal resources from countries to promoting gasoline cars exactly?

@yogthos @OchotonidKnight
What? That's not at all what I did. I also condemn coups to steal resources, I just don't believe that's what is happening in Bolivia. There are exactly zero pieces of evidence of something like that, and a bunch of evidence saying they simply sold more cars in China. And yes, more electric cars in the most populous country is definitely a good thing - do you disagree? I wish more people were working on it.

@chebra @OchotonidKnight there is zero evidence that the military forced out a democratically elected government days after it stopped a multinational firm's lithium deal?

And again, nobody is arguing against electric cars here. Why do you keep using this straw man?

Making electric cars is a topic that's completely unrelated to this discussion. Do you not agree?

@yogthos

How can electric cars be unrelated when you started talking about Tesla and lithium batteries? You don't see the connection? And I'm not sure if you noticed, but I was reacting to @OchotonidKnight who suggested that selling electric cars in China is not a good thing. Still don't see the connection?

@chebra @OchotonidKnight the idea of electric cars is obviously unrelated to the question of how lithium needed for the batteries is obtained.

I started talking about the demand for lithium by companies like Tesla being the likely cause of a coup in Bolivia. That does not imply that I'm against electric cars in any way.

I'm against Western exploitation of countries like Bolivia for their resources.

Still don't see the distinction?

@yogthos @OchotonidKnight
I still don't see any lithium conspiracy exploitation in the Bolivian elections and protests. You just nonchalantly assume it, and many people like to hear it, but the reasoning is weak to non-existent.

@chebra @OchotonidKnight right, it's just a pure coincidence that a fascist coup happens days after Bolivia decides not to give its lithium away to multinationals. In other news, I've got a bridge to sell you.

@yogthos @chebra And by the way, to clear up my point on the China thing, it's less that I am against China "having electric cars" and more that I do not like the taste of a company from one human rights abusing country doing business with another. There's been an awful trend of American businesses kowtowing to Chinese money as of late, in case you haven't noticed.

@yogthos @OchotonidKnight
I'm sorry, but if that's the level of logic you use, then you must be thrilled from this website: tylervigen.com/spurious-correl
I've been to Bolivia, and let me tell you, if someone can change it and make the lives of the poor people there a bit better, it would be a win for humanity as a whole. The bridge between socialist dictatorship and low quality of life is unfortunately much more travelled.

@OchotonidKnight LOL, millenial here but whatever, just block me already

@chebra @OchotonidKnight if you forget that CIA exists and their history of operation in the region then yeah totally spurious, meanwhile in the real world:

news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2

@yogthos (((so isn’t this like the US “”intervening”” in the Middle East for oil deposits?)))

@yogthos
yep, Tesla is only possible wthx to US military. which is why rest of the world needs lithium alternatives.

@yogthos @geske that jump came 2 days after the election itself, before Morales stopped the count because it was going to show that he lost, well before any of the events that could be considered a coup. And I suspect it's a coincidence, because between then and this week's maybe-coup, he cancelled a major lithium export deal. I think if this share price movement were to do with Bolivia's lithium exports we'd see some response to that in the share price too.

@yogthos Installing a Fascist regime in Bolivia just to sell more batteries. Just goes to show how Fascism and Capitalism goes hand in hand - neither of them care one ounce about the lives of human beings.

@DissidentKitty wait, i can’t tell, are you actually suggesting tesla is behind the coup?

@DissidentKitty @yogthos now this is incredibly disingenuous guys… Anyone who follows Tesla knows that bump happened because they beat Wall Street's profit predictions, had nothing to do with Bolivia. Also, going from the graph straight to accusation of "installing a Fascist regime" simply because of blanket hatred towards billionaires is exactly why nobody likes radicals.

I don't want to get into an elaborate argument. Take it or leave it.

@isagalaev @yogthos "I'm so smart my argument requires no elaboration, yet I'm stupid enough to buy into the myth of self-made billionaires."

Ok Liberal. Now shut the fuck up and go back to licking those corp boots.

@isagalaev @DissidentKitty it's not blanket hatred for billionaires, but rather knowing the rich history of US fuckery in the region. Pretty much every fascist coup in Latin America has been backed by the CIA, and it was always about exploiting the resources in the region.

@yogthos well you can't go directly from rich history in general to accusation of a very particular person in a very particular crime. Especially based on a clearly misattributed correlation.

@isagalaev I'm not implying that Musk or Tesla are directly responsible for the coup. I do think however that the rise in demand for lithium used for electric vehicles is a factor here though.

@yogthos no you didn't imply that, the other person did (and I replied to them in the first place).

Myself, I'm not ready to read into it all anything more than a simple coincidence. US EV industry (read: Tesla) is not really on good terms with the current government to suspect the latter in undercover ops planned way in advance to specifically benefit the former. They probably had their own "reasons", no less nefarious.

@isagalaev I gotta say it's a pretty funny timeline though

- 8 days ago, Bolivia cancelled agreement with German mining company for lithium reserves
- This Germany company was a supplier for Tesla, as all their batteries are lithium-based
- Coup happens
- Today, German gigafactory announcement

@yogthos you know how all conspiracy theories kind of make sense, on the surface? :-)

If you dig deeper, they've probably been planning that Gigafactory for several years now. And it's consistent with the general plan of building factories around the world to avoid import tariffs and save on deliveries for local markets. But that's too boring, of course :-)

@isagalaev but then you consider how many actual coups that CIA has done over the years over precisely this kind of thing, and consider that the coups don't just happen over night, and are also planned for years, and the fact that there are actual audio recordings that have been leaked of US helping to plan this coup, and you can't help but wonder.

When you have a clear motive and a long documented history why would you expect this to be different?

@isagalaev but then you consider how many actual coups that CIA has done over the years over precisely this kind of thing, and consider that the coups don't just happen over night, and are also planned for years, and the fact that there are actual audio recordings that have been leaked of US helping to plan this coup, and you can't help but wonder.

When you have a clear motive and a long documented history why would you expect this to be different?

pol, econ meme 

@yogthos I see the biggest rise in stock prices around October 25, not November 10. IMO it's not needed to start unproved conspiracy theories to make a point.

Disclaimer: not a fan of #Tesla, not a fan of the US, not a fan of this coup.

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