I was thinking about this exact effect at work the other day when a financier was talking about people who shorted the housing market back in that big crash years ago. He attributed their success to all kinds of personality traits and analysis and it's like... you know, the vast majority of these people probably got lucky at random in a big way, and now you're hindsight-fallacying it into all these wild explanations.
I doubt I could dig up the source to fact-check this so take this with a grain of salt, but I remember reading an article a while back (probably on LessWrong) about how a certain kind of finance person is considered highly successful if they beat the market n years in a row, and coincidentally, the number of such people is pretty much exactly what you would expect if they were all betting completely at random.
@yogthos `@bayesiangirl`? Username checks out.
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