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Based on the 2022 vote, with no ON or UAP candidates, I'd say that gives Price a starting vote of about 12%. If she can pick up a few points from the others, she can easily finish 3rd on first prefs, pass Libs into 2nd on Green prefs and win it on Libs prefs. If she gets a strong boost from the Pocock factor, she could get well into the 20s on first prefs