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#overshoot

1 post1 participant0 posts today
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Eudaimon ꙮ

“The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot” by Nate Hagens

How growing consumption is pushing Earth beyond its carrying capacity

This is a refinement of a previous “Frankly” episode, in the form of an essay. I think it’s very useful to learn concepts such as the carbon pulse, overshoot and carrying capacity, the economic superorganism, the effect of addiction to dopamine (in a brain designed and fine-tuned for an environment very different than our current one in cities, and western culture)… As Nate says: there is no solution because there is no problem; instead, we face a predicament with maybe different outcomes.

Two images side by side. On the left, a drawing of a prehistoric human wearing some skins, apparently picking food and near a fire. On the right, a picture of a human wearing clothes sitting in front of a desk with a laptop, holding a cup of coffee. In both pictures there is a superimposed brain in their heads, which looks identical.
#TheGreatSimplification#NateHagens#Overshoot
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oregano

": Why It’s Already Too Late To Save "

I also quote a paragraph that brings some hope (from another article of the same author).

"That’s why I always emphasize that even though it’s too late to save civilization, it’s not too late to save as much of the natural world as possible. Every 1/10th of a degree of warming that we prevent will save millions of lives and countless species."

medium.com/@CollapseSurvival/o

Ruins of a City
Medium · Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save CivilizationBy Alan Urban
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Lord Caramac the Clueless, KSC

I think that whatever happens, we absolutely must keep a healthy biodiverse population of horses alive if we can. When civilisation eventually collapses, we will need riders to stich the remaining civilised islands back together. We humans are just a bunch of very smart monkeys, upright walking grassland apes with big mutant brains that need a lot of fat and protein, but once we ride horses, we can have a very well organised society while staying mobile until we run out of grasslands. Savannah, steppe, prairie, pampa, whatever the local type of grassland ecosystem is called, once humans have horses, we can always live rather good lives there because we evolved for it, and so did the horses.
The grasslands will be different in the future because they will shift by thousands of kilometres if all this climate mayhem continues as projected (and in order for it to continue, all we have to do is not to change anything we're doing), with new species of plants and animals evolving from whatever survives there, but as long as there is a lot of grass, horses will thrive there, and so will nomadic tribes.
Whether people can still use horses to replace broken machines that cannot be repaired will have a significant influence on the probability of survival. We (well, those few of us who survive, not me; I won't live to see the end of it, I'm almost 50) might have to party like it's 1699, but it's better than partying like it's 5,000BC, and even that is better than partying like it's 50,000,000BC when there were those cute little mini horses, and that was because all the large mammals had died out because the planet was too fucking hot for them.
Just look at how populations of non-human, non-pet and non-livestock vertebrates are plummeting right now. Some species are thriving, mostly small omnivores like mice or pigeons, but all the other vertebrates are vanishing because we're destroying their habitats to grow crops or build big concrete boxes that suck up a lot of energy and raw materials and spew out heat and rubbish. Keeping both humans and horses alive during such a collapse will be hard, but if we lose horses, we will probably fall all the way down to a Palæolithic way of life with no chance of ever getting out of it again.
People keep talking about the climate as if it were the only thing that is killing us, while the biodiversity collapse is actually the thing which is doing us in right now. If we put enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to tip the Earth into a global Hothouse Age like back in the days of the tiny horses that were the ancestors of all horses, donkeys, zebras, and the tiny lemurs that would over millions of years evolve into monkeys, into apes, and into us, well, that will definitely be the end of us and of 95% of all other species of plants, fungi, animals, whatever, most complex multicellular organisms will be having a bad time, but waterbears or moss piglets or whatever you like to call them, tardigrades, they will barely notice that there's another mass extinction. But the biosphere will heal, our good old Earth will be fine again in five million years, maybe ten if it's really bad. New species will evolve from the survivors.
If Homo sapiens, the last surviving species of the genus Homo, doesn't go extinct, there will be future hominids, and maybe some distant descendant a couple of million years in the future starts another Industrial Revolution and ruins everything again. Nope, not going to happen, all the fossil fuels are gone. Ha-ha! No, any postindustrial civilisation for a very, very long time will be able to start another Industrial Age. Once that's gone, it's gone. We might be able to preserve a lot of the theoretical knowledge, but we won't have the mass production. If it can't be done in a village workshop, it can't be done at all. I think the Amish are a rather weird bunch, but at least they understand that reliance on complex technology beyond what can be made and repaired locally makes you vulnerable. And horses need neither oil nor electricity.
#πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #overshoot #collapse #SixthExtinction #ClimateChaos

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शून्यता

Mir geht's so gut, ich hör mal eine Folge #DasKlima #Podcast.

dasklima.podigee.io/126-dk126-

| 2024 wird das bisher wärmste Jahr der Messgeschichte mit Rekordemissionen und es wird das erste Jahr, in dem die globale Temperaturerhöhung über 1,5 Grad liegen wird.

Yes, right in die feels.

Das KlimaDK126 - Overshoot ist gefährlich!"Das Klima”, der Podcast zur Wissenschaft hinter der Krise. Wir lasen den [sechsten Bericht](https://www.ipcc.ch) des Weltklimarats und erklären den aktuellen Stand der Klimaforschung. In Folge 126 widmen wir uns dem Overshoot. So nennt man die Strategie, ein Klimaziel zwischenzeitlich zu verfehlen, aber mit der Absicht es am Ende doch einzuhalten. Also zum Beispiel zu riskieren, dass die globale Temperaturerhöhung um mehr als 2 Grad ansteigt, solange sie Ende des Jahrhunderts wieder darunter liegt. Warum das aber alles andere als eine gute Idee ist, diskutieren wir in dieser Folge. Wer den Podcast unterstützen will, kann das gerne tun: https://steadyhq.com/de/dasklima/ und https://www.paypal.me/florianfreistetter.
#IPCC#Copernicus#Overshoot
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Weary Wulf

[P] On the long list of things I loathe about hiverarchy...

Cereminimal Wealth Troglodytes: "Overpopulation'is a myth! Something something racism and ya don't wanna be racist. Or a pedophile! SO BREED LIKE SALMON!"
Drones: "Yeess maaassterr..."
Experts: "That's not exactly true, population overshoo—"
Drones: "KILL THE PEDOPHILIC RACIST HERETIC!"

I'm surprised Musk hasn't tried selling Magic Elon Crystals. It'd be lucrative...

#psychology#science#climatecatastrophe
Continued thread
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anlomedad

Hm. nature.com/articles/s41467-021
"Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios" by deVrese and Brovkin 2021

They took one of the plant-soil models and looked in an overshoot scenario what the temperature rise and artificial sudden removal of atmospheric CO2 does to the soil and carbon store in the #Arctic.

The end result after adaption to new stabilisation level is: carbon store is only 40GtC lower than before the overshoot, ie a mere 4 years worth of current global fossil CO2 emissions.
This surprisingly (to me) low end result of -40GtC is due to increased plant growth from the temperature increase over pre-industrial, from the prolonged growth seasons, and a special Arctic circumstance of high Nitrogen availability that ensures nutrients for excessive plant growth.

But the "end result" comprises the whole adjustment period to a stabilised °C after the overshoot. Adjustment takes 1000 yrs in the model.
And in the interim periods, emissions from thawing permafrost do reach 1 to 1.5GtC each year, and for decades! The duration for this soil-atmosphere carbon flux depends on the level and duration of the temperature overshoot.
Of course, it also increases the #CO2 amount to be artificially removed to undo an #overshoot.

In the context of #RCPcollapse :
the toot above showed how natural CO2 removal after civilisation collapse leads to temperature reduction of more than 0.5°C within 30 years .
Now, while permafrost thaw is irreversible on human time scales, it won't continue in RCPcollapse. (Because Arctic permafrost has no general technical tipping point after which self-perpetuating or self-reinforcing processes would kick in. Such processes only exist in small areas, locally, with local-only tipping behaviour. See "Global Tipping Points Report" 2023, chapter on #cryosphere nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/5365)
In RCPcollapse, the adjustment to the new equilibrium will take 1000 years – but there won't be a palpable increase in °C from the thaw.

NatureTimescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios - Nature CommunicationsIn this study, the authors investigate a scenario where global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 °C. They find that Arctic ecosystems will need centuries to adapt to such an increase and that the ensuing steady-state depends on the preceding climate trajectory.
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Otis Scops aka Crash Course

Why Cheap Renewables Won't Save Us?

An interesting look at the reasons. Here it is shown, once again I should say, that capitalism doesn't work when it comes to long-term thinking. Capitalism is about short term profit above all.

So, would the world be saved when be could kill the capitalist system?
Well, we would be much better off I'm sure, but unfortunately when it comes to saving the planet, or our civilisation for that matter, I don't think so.

When it comes to the energy transition, there are two main factors that are not mentioned in this explanatory video.

1. Renewables produce electricity. Wind, solar and hydro power all result in electricity production. Unfortunately electricity only accounts for some 20% of our energy usage. The rest is supplied mostly by fossil fuels.

2. More importantly, we are in a severe state of overshoot. We have been using more than our share of minerals, oil and whatever. There are just not enough critical minerals available for the type of energy transition that would be necessary for 8 billion people on the planet.
- And besides energy we also need food and wild nature -

youtube.com/watch?v=mkIMf_hVOf

YouTubeWhy Cheap Renewables Won't Save UsBy Our Changing Climate
#energy#Renewables#PV
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:mastodon:

| @tine in @apache_be: ", zo analyseren historicus en sociaal geograaf [...] is geen toeval, geen onvoorziene omstandigheid, het is een gecalculeerde mogelijkheid. Het was de afkoopsom waarmee 1,5 graad in het Klimaatverdrag van Parijs werd aanvaard. Dat de geïndustrialiseerde landen instemden met deze eis van het globale Zuiden was te danken aan een uitweg die ze voor zichzelf hadden geconstrueerd."

👉 via @janwlrvn social.coop/@janwlrvn/11384836

social.coopJan Walraven (@janwlrvn@social.coop)“Dat de wereld al in 2024 gemiddeld 1,5 graad warmer was, lokte bij beleidsmakers zo weinig reactie uit dat het de vraag oproept of ze die grens ooit ernstig hebben genomen.”
 Collega @tine schrijft waar het op staat, met verwijzing naar het fenomenale nieuwe boek van Andreas Malm en Wim Carton, #Overshoot. https://apache.be/2025/01/18/dan-gaan-we-gewoon-toch-even-boven-15-graad?cdlnk=b0NKYzhVOGl3dXJSWkRqRDQrOEtKblgwSXczZ2hBZC9EWU9iMHJUZ050dnpBRWZVVm9hb3N5dW5xTmphOjozYWZjOTJlYWFjMTM3MDg5MmFkOWQzN2Q0MWUwZjlhMQ%3D%3D #klimaatcrisis #klimaatverandering
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Jan Walraven

“Dat de wereld al in 2024 gemiddeld 1,5 graad warmer was, lokte bij beleidsmakers zo weinig reactie uit dat het de vraag oproept of ze die grens ooit ernstig hebben genomen.”

Collega @tine schrijft waar het op staat, met verwijzing naar het fenomenale nieuwe boek van Andreas Malm en Wim Carton, #Overshoot.

apache.be/2025/01/18/dan-gaan-

apache.be · Dan gaan we gewoon toch even boven 1,5 graad?Hebben politici de grens uit het Klimaatakkoord van Parijs ooit ernstig genomen?
#klimaatcrisis#klimaatverandering
Replied in thread
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anlomedad

@c_ozwei @hausfath

In the 1610-event when CO2 dropped 6-7ppm (Koch et al 2019 "Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492" sciencedirect.com/science/arti ),
and in the 1940event when CO2 growth fell to 0,
the true power of each underlying cause was 25% bigger than observed, because oceans degassed CO2 accordingly.

And AMOC stumbled during both – is there a direct link?

A link between CO2 drop and AMOC slowdown, if it exists, has practical impacts in both emission scenarios: while undoing an #overshoot, or in the more likely #RCPcollapse scenario where we kill our civilisation – which, via a resulting gruesome population decline to 20% of today, increases the land sink:
743Gt CO2 within 30 years, ie -0.5°C, when only pastures and crop land for animal farming were to be rewilded, says Hayek et al 2021 nature.com/articles/s41893-020 "The carbon opportunity cost of animal-sourced food production on land"

I can imagine a link between AMOC slowdown and CO2drawdown in 3 ways:
* that the process of decreasing CO2 concentration affects salinity and convection (maybe first increasing salinity = speeding up AMOC, followed by salinity decline once CO2 drawdown is complete = slowing AMOC down)
* that the process of changing atmospheric composition affects precipitation over the North #Atlantic,
* that the process of rewilding in the Eastern Americas, much like in the 1610-event but 10times higher, changes pressure patterns over the Atlantic, leading to more precipitation for example over the "warming hole" / convection region in the Northern North Atlantic. A bit like in Preece et al 2023 nature.com/articles/s41467-023 "Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover over Canada" where bare, drying soil in East Canada leads to summer Omega blocking with the High pressure systems over Greenland and Low to the SouthEast of Greenland

Just wanted to add this here to stress your question "Are there any calculations available?"

We must know in advance if either scenario causes #AMOC to slowdown.
Societal dynamics in reaction to an AMOC slowdown during an intentional overshoot-decline scenario might well mean that the OS-scenario then also glides into civilisation collapse and #RCPcollapse...
pinging @rahmstorf

2 charts from AD 1050 to AD 1710, and from 1862 to 1956. Both show the evolutions of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the AMOC strength, plus, the population size in the Americas for the 16th century, and Europe and Asia for the 20th century. Population of the Americas rises steadily until year 1590, then drops from 62 million to 9 million. CO2 concentration reaches 282ppm by year 1100. It stays at 282 ppm until year 1542 when it begins to drop to 276 ppm by year 1621. A drop by 6ppm CO2 at a loss of 53 million people in the Americas. AMOC is stable until it drops to its then all- time low in year 1610. But recovers quickly. The 2nd chart from 1862 to 1956 shows CO2ppm and Asia's and Europe's population, all as annual growth rates because the actual values like in the chart for the Americas wouldn't show the evolution clearly. From 1932 to 1940, AMOC drops by 0.7, from 1936 to 1940, CO2 growth rate drops from 0.4 to 0, from 1939 to 1946, Europe's annual population growth drops from 3.8mio to 1mio, from 1938 to 1943, Asia's annual population growth falls from 13 to 6 million.
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