Mastodon could flop, Mastodon could be bigger than Twitter, we don't know. But you damn sure aint gone know if you don't try it.
Most of this is coming from people just not wanting to lose their huge following on Twitter.
You're used to having 10,000+ followers and you don't want to give that up.
And yes I also understand a lot of our friends are on Twitter and there's a good chance they won't even attempt Mastodon either.
@AquaMarching I have spent over a year on Diaspora, a dentralized network famed from being a more privacy aware Facebook, and it has been there longer than I. Can it dry out, yeah, it has, but those coders and programmers that hosted the open source servers, they keep it alive, because cells that are there want it to live. can it be bigger? Yes, but no cell is dominating another. and i never felt dominated. But all this is determined by the users, its always about them