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@argv_minus_one

(1/n)

I can agree with much of what you say, except for this sentence:

" I have no reason to doubt the correctness of their calculation."

I doubt he is pretty much miscalculating, like he/they did in the "retreat" from .

If I remember correctly, won in 2016, 👉also👈 b/c he promised to "end the war."

I'd say voters will not react kindly if Biden/Harris gets the into a new war...

@w7voa

@argv_minus_one @w7voa

(2/n)

...Also, I very much doubt that Iran can be kept out of a , if things escalate any further.

In my view, but OFC this is just an assessment, as is yours, a full-scale war with US boots on the ground will backfire even more.
OFC the Administration knows that, it's inevitable. Or the more disloyal by to not hold his breath until November 6th.

This is what I'm saying, ...

@argv_minus_one @w7voa

(3/n)

...MUST be reigned in. NOW, before it is too late, which it could quite soon be.

It might already be, b/c "everyone" knows now that Biden cannot control Netanyahu, maybe even less than Reagan.

The ball is now in 's court. The Regime now has less incentive to not react in a beligerent way. The only thing holding them back is that they want the economy-wrecking...

HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

@argv_minus_one @w7voa

(4/n)

... lifted. This could not have come at a worse time for them either.

One last thing: I'd be a very happy person if my assessment of the situation proved to be wrong. In fact, I pray for it to be wrong.

A full-blown war in the would not only destabilize the whole region, but others as well. For one thing, it would be a repeat of 2015 in Europe.

However this time round, there would not be...

@argv_minus_one @w7voa

(5/n)

..."Culture of Welcome," as then Chancelor Angela Merkel called it. This time, we have either rightwing governments (e.g. Italy) or countries like Germany where the "rightwing extremist" are one of the two strongest parties in state elections. This would not end well, if further floods of hundreds of thousands, maybe more, refugees were to descend on Europe and or/Turkey,...

@argv_minus_one @w7voa

(6/6)

...maybe Egypt, too.

The whole situation is a giant powder keg. OFC I'm not the only one seing it this way. Small wanter the UN and others are trying to calm down all parties involved in the conflict in the Levant.

Even though the election in the US is hugely important, it might be not the most important thing to consider.

//