#GeoPol #WarInEurope #Belarus #NATO
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OPINION
#Putler is playing chess with #NATO. Having successfully re-activated his most succesful asset, the #OrangePeril, he's quietly been moving his biggest comparative strength vis-a-vis NATO, #TacticalNuclearWeapons, into strategic positions in his vassal state, #Belarus.
These missiles are now able to hit the #BalticStates, #Poland, as well as #Slovakia.
Using the West's permission (except...
https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-range-russian-nukes-moved-closer-nato-countries-1998658
@HistoPol Um, the USSR and now the new entity called the Russian Federation cosplaying an empire has ICBMs in service since the 1960s that could target anywhere since long before this new PR stunt of a missile existed.
RF has failed in Syria, seems to be failing in Georgia, has spent hundred of thousands lives making tiny gains in a war with a country it swore to not invade. Its navy has failed to a country without a navy.
Its economy failed catastrophically after a failed military quagmire in Afghanistan and doing its best to repeat that failure in Ukraine.
That the west is allowing him to play checkers is embarrassing. Even with that he'll be lucky to be alive leading North Korean V2. Sure they can cause a lot of pain and misery along the way but RF is treated like they the USSR at their peak.
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I kinda like your wording, "cosplaying". ;)
True, howerver Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles would most definitely mean WWIII and an Apocalypse-Now scenario. Tactical Nuclear Weapons can be used way below eradicating a city and are therefore not part of that doomsday scenario.
Yes, the Assad Dynasty is finished in Syria. However, an autocracy collapsing cannot be wholly, IMO, not even significantly attributed to a super power having failed.
Russia's...
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...economy, for that matter, should have been wrecked by sanctions...years ago, time and again.
I know, many economists think differently, but as #TheEconomist (@theeconomist) reported in March of this year (1) e.g.), and #BusinessInsider recently 2), the #RUS economy has proven very resilient, time and again.
For one thing, apart from its #BlackFleet carrying sanctioned oil 3), it has diversified its illicit...
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...national income by using cryptocurrency skemes around the globe, e.g. lately in #Canada. 4)
It still retains the support of #NorthKorea, which will profit greatly from the fighter jets it will receive in return, as well as the other global super power, #China. IMO, #Russia is slowly but surely becoming a #Chinese vassal state. I'd argue, that #Xi would like the #Ukrainian war to continue, now that the...
4)
https://krebsonsecurity.com/2024/12/how-cryptocurrency-turns-to-cash-in-russian-banks/
@HistoPol @theeconomist Economy. You have your sources so you are entitled to your informed opinion but time will tell despite what we believe.
Look at their inflation, interest rates, currency valuation, declining worker population, loss of military contracts, a wartime economy that is rapidly depositing their reserves into a Ukrainian graveyard. What escape route do they have on all of that? Things take a lot more time than most think. We expect to see immediate reaction but organisms struggle to survive despite a losing battle.
Sorry I am not letting you finish your thread before replying. I have to refocus on other things shortly.
"Economy. You have your sources so you are entitled to your informed opinion but time will tell despite what we believe."
Likewise, chapeau. ;) Through discussions and dialogues, we learn.
"Things take a lot more time than most think."
Excactly. IMO, the final outcome will be that the #RF breaks apart, at least in three. The far-eastern part will become part of #China. The #Chinese government officials have even already begun to rename border regions in northern India, as...
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...well as south-eastern Russia.
I do not disagree with your analysis at all. I'm just afraid that #Putler will take #Ukraine down with his regime, or rather before he falls.
I pray and hope, that I'm wrong. Either way, the #OrangePeril, Moscow's most successful asset of all times, is getting another chance to wreck the US and the global post-WWII security framework, or rather what's left of it, apart form #NATO.
Have a great day/WE.