All right. Now that is about to be law in the EU (for a given value of 'law' - unlike the GDPR it relies on individual member states for implementation, as far as I know), let's do some predictions. What is going to happen? What is not? Make it something that can be true or false as of, say, a year from now. Here are two of mine:

1. People will continue to communicate in vandalized, uncredited and captioned images;
2. YouTube will not go away.

(Full disclosure: I am both against the new copyright directive as a whole, and skeptical about apocalyptic claims about its effects on the internet, simply because 'end of the internet predicted, film at 11' was already a tired cliché back in 1994)


Youtube has already worked closely with the big German copyright holders to get content ID to work well enough to squeeze every last 0,01€ from uploads of late 1960s Schlager, and has got the "kids" to comply by dangling the carrot of ad revenue so they rarely don't use copyrighted content anyway.

OTOH I don't think stopping memes would be any more feasible than preventing the placing of anarchist/political and other stickers on cigarette machines in Germany..

@vfrmedia You'll understand that I'm just riding my own hobby horses with my specific predictions, but in a way that makes me accountable for them.
That is, if these two specific things are proven wrong (or in YT's case, even partly wrong in the sense that the company suffers real damage from articles 11/13), then my stance of malevolent apathy towards the proposal was probably unjustified and needs reconsideration.

@Reinderdijkhuis I think there is a slim chance YT might restrict some services to the EU almost out of spite (like USA newspapers post GDPR) but they are already very good at geoblocking and censoring "acceptable content" per country

I doubt it will harm them financially a great deal (if anything does it might be their own bad corporate decisions and/or politics within the USA)

@Reinderdijkhuis YouTube becomes even more draconian, everyone still has to use it due to zero competition

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