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@fivetonsflax well yes, you’re replying to a post from earlier in the thread.

I would be happy to chat about it in person. Not averse to online discussion but it’s susceptible to certain traps that body language and eye contact can defuse. I agree LLMs aren’t as significant an advance as computers. I don’t agree that my professional or personal biases irreparably corrupt my views (in fact I don’t use LLMs beyond copilot and ChatGPT). It’s true I’m not v persuaded by neo-Luddism.

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@fivetonsflax well yes, you’re replying to a post from earlier in the thread.

I would be happy to chat about it in person. Not averse to online discussion but it’s susceptible to certain traps that body language and eye contact can defuse. I agree LLMs aren’t as significant an advance as computers. I don’t agree that my professional or personal biases irreparably corrupt my views (in fact I don’t use LLMs beyond copilot and ChatGPT). It’s true I’m not v persuaded by neo-Luddism.

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@fivetonsflax happy to chat further in person where I expect the conversation might be less susceptible to such online discourse traps.

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@fivetonsflax happy to chat further in person where I expect the conversation might be less susceptible to such online discourse traps.

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@fivetonsflax I think your inclination to "take it all apart" rather than to find common ground is somewhat telling, as is your tendency towards ad hominems, but I can't find any fault whatsoever with your prioritizing doing music with your daughter.

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@fivetonsflax I think your inclination to "take it all apart" rather than to find common ground is somewhat telling, as is your tendency towards ad hominems, but I can't find any fault whatsoever with your prioritizing doing music with your daughter.

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@trochee @fivetonsflax Amazon shutting down independent booksellers and then independent everything-else sellers

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@trochee @fivetonsflax Amazon shutting down independent booksellers and then independent everything-else sellers

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@fivetonsflax (b) represents only 10% of the energy use of data centers, per above-linked article (people don’t seem quite as quick to condemn others for streaming TV or storing unnecessary videos as for using AI), (c) is in fact justifiable if LLMs turn out to be more efficient than straight web searches (at the moment they aren’t, but for some tasks it seems quite plausible that you can save electricity using an agent based approach instead of a bunch of manual database queries)

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@fivetonsflax (b) represents only 10% of the energy use of data centers, per above-linked article (people don’t seem quite as quick to condemn others for streaming TV or storing unnecessary videos as for using AI), (c) is in fact justifiable if LLMs turn out to be more efficient than straight web searches (at the moment they aren’t, but for some tasks it seems quite plausible that you can save electricity using an agent based approach instead of a bunch of manual database queries)

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@fivetonsflax https://www. axios.com/2024/10/04/ai-energy-data-center-growth I think the issue you identify about restructuring society is the correct one to focus on, but I feel sad when people get distracted by so many other things I view as logical fallacies. For example, focusing on the energy use of LLMs, which (a) is a pure function of the excessive subsidies LLMs currently enjoy from VCs (once those disappear so will the energy wastage),

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@fivetonsflax https://www. axios.com/2024/10/04/ai-energy-data-center-growth I think the issue you identify about restructuring society is the correct one to focus on, but I feel sad when people get distracted by so many other things I view as logical fallacies. For example, focusing on the energy use of LLMs, which (a) is a pure function of the excessive subsidies LLMs currently enjoy from VCs (once those disappear so will the energy wastage),

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@fivetonsflax but yes there are parallels and one of those parallels is that the left did not really know how to react and blundered straight into the fallacy of trying to attack the tech instead of (to use your word) the bosses. I quite distinctly remember my 6th grade art teacher, a self proclaimed Marxist intellectual, contemptuously dismissing computers as “garbage in, garbage out”. I suppose his politics could have been unrelated to his technophobia, but I don’t think so

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@fivetonsflax but yes there are parallels and one of those parallels is that the left did not really know how to react and blundered straight into the fallacy of trying to attack the tech instead of (to use your word) the bosses. I quite distinctly remember my 6th grade art teacher, a self proclaimed Marxist intellectual, contemptuously dismissing computers as “garbage in, garbage out”. I suppose his politics could have been unrelated to his technophobia, but I don’t think so

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@fivetonsflax Some of it was helped along by rhetoric about how you can’t stand in the way of progress, and yes that included a lot of talk about how modern telecoms and computers made the old ways obsolete. That’s kind of my point though - it would have been misguided (even nonsensical) to blame computers themselves for that - even though a lot of the claims being made about the transformative potential of computers now seem naive, or more like drawbacks than advantages

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@fivetonsflax Some of it was helped along by rhetoric about how you can’t stand in the way of progress, and yes that included a lot of talk about how modern telecoms and computers made the old ways obsolete. That’s kind of my point though - it would have been misguided (even nonsensical) to blame computers themselves for that - even though a lot of the claims being made about the transformative potential of computers now seem naive, or more like drawbacks than advantages

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@fivetonsflax hahaha maybe so
Incidentally last night we tried to list all the tech hype cycles in our lifetimes. Came up with:
AI
Blockchain
COVID/biotech
VR/Metaverse
IoT
3D printing
Cleantech/green power
Self driving cars
B2B
Edtech
Social
Cloud
Web 2.0
Dot Com / web 1.0

Maybe you can think of others

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@fivetonsflax hahaha maybe so
Incidentally last night we tried to list all the tech hype cycles in our lifetimes. Came up with:
AI
Blockchain
COVID/biotech
VR/Metaverse
IoT
3D printing
Cleantech/green power
Self driving cars
B2B
Edtech
Social
Cloud
Web 2.0
Dot Com / web 1.0

Maybe you can think of others

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@fivetonsflax and for balance 9) yes it definitely hallucinates code, uses old APIs, invents inaccurate solutions and makes algorithms unnecessarily baroque. I can understand why it might outrage some people if it is used as a justification for the ongoing inflated investment in LLMs, but that does not mean it is not useful if used carefully

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@fivetonsflax and for balance 9) yes it definitely hallucinates code, uses old APIs, invents inaccurate solutions and makes algorithms unnecessarily baroque. I can understand why it might outrage some people if it is used as a justification for the ongoing inflated investment in LLMs, but that does not mean it is not useful if used carefully

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@fivetonsflax 8) The article title claims one thing but the article cites at least three studies two of which do not support the claim in the title

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@fivetonsflax 8) The article title claims one thing but the article cites at least three studies two of which do not support the claim in the title

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@fivetonsflax 6) I suspect a lot of our differences around LLMs result from talking about different things - the software vs the industry. Obviously if tech hype cycles make you sad (understandable) then you will be mad at LLMs. But that is about the industry not about whether an individual tool (eg copilot) is actually useful
7) Have you tried it?

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@fivetonsflax 6) I suspect a lot of our differences around LLMs result from talking about different things - the software vs the industry. Obviously if tech hype cycles make you sad (understandable) then you will be mad at LLMs. But that is about the industry not about whether an individual tool (eg copilot) is actually useful
7) Have you tried it?

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@fivetonsflax 5) None of this is really relevant if one has already made up one’s mind, which honestly seems to be the case with most discourse around LLMs (for or against). One can simply repost studies that support one’s beliefs and dismiss any others

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@fivetonsflax 5) None of this is really relevant if one has already made up one’s mind, which honestly seems to be the case with most discourse around LLMs (for or against). One can simply repost studies that support one’s beliefs and dismiss any others

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@fivetonsflax 2) The result is nevertheless consistent with AI coding assistants being a tool that can help experienced programmers who use it with care, while tripping up less experienced (or careful) coders
3) I have some reservations about productivity metrics (here, rate of PRs) being used to decide whether a tool is worthwhile
4) This conclusion somewhat contradicts my direct empirical experience (and lots of other people’s) that these tools are helpful

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@fivetonsflax 2) The result is nevertheless consistent with AI coding assistants being a tool that can help experienced programmers who use it with care, while tripping up less experienced (or careful) coders
3) I have some reservations about productivity metrics (here, rate of PRs) being used to decide whether a tool is worthwhile
4) This conclusion somewhat contradicts my direct empirical experience (and lots of other people’s) that these tools are helpful

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@fivetonsflax I have seen this. I have a few thoughts:
1) Measuring software productivity is notoriously tricky. Fred Brooks, for example, cites a study that “proves” experience does not make programmers more productive. (He expresses skepticism about this result, while acknowledging other parts of the study as useful.) Brooks also observed that one should not expect too much of new programming technologies until they mature.

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@fivetonsflax I have seen this. I have a few thoughts:
1) Measuring software productivity is notoriously tricky. Fred Brooks, for example, cites a study that “proves” experience does not make programmers more productive. (He expresses skepticism about this result, while acknowledging other parts of the study as useful.) Brooks also observed that one should not expect too much of new programming technologies until they mature.