Fox Thirty Eight 🦊🌹 @fox_news@mastodon.social

Notable dream tickets: Bernie/Booker, /Abrams. Risky pick: /Tlaib. /Turner would be incestuous.

S: Bernie
A: (none)
B/C: Warren
D: none
F: Klobuchar, Steyer, Buttigieg
Z: Biden

Current forecasts: (1/11/2019)

-Bernie wins the primary and general

-45 impeached but acquitted by the Senate

-the Levant continues to be a human rights crisis but Rojava clings to life

-US recession starting around 6/2020 (bond yield inversion curve signal is too strong and acts switchlike)

-China finally gets fed up and crushes HK bloodily

-Climate crisis is thoroughly managed decline but remains fixable?

Current forecasts: (1/11/2019)

-Bernie wins the primary and general

-45 impeached but acquitted by the Senate

-the Levant continues to be a human rights crisis but Rojava clings to life

-US recession starting around 6/2020 (bond yield inversion curve signal is too strong and acts switchlike)

-China finally gets fed up and crushes HK bloodily

-Climate crisis is thoroughly managed decline but remains fixable?

For political events whose analysis occurred before December 1, 2019, please search for uspol/pol/dem debate CWs on @CoronaCoreanici .

If it's either one of them, I'm protest-voting Bernie.

https://twitter.com/CoronaCoreanici/status/1221285682338942978

I have already precommitted to refuse to vote for Biden, if he becomes the Democratic nominee. I am adding Bloomberg to that precommitment.

538 seems to put a lot of weight behind the poll, so that's probably good

Apologies, all - I haven't been able to filter the senate inquiry because this week has been ridiculously busy for me. I'm probably going to be intermittently busy like this for the next few months, because I'm in the middle of preparation for a pair of large cumulative exams for a PhD.

https://twitter.com/curaffairs/status/1221092324211601410

“While a great many Americans are asked to kill and die for their country, they are almost never asked to stand up and fight for one another.” Beautiful piece by @NaomiAKlein on the movement behind Bernie. #NotMeUs
https://t.co/oxpg1YGvZl https://twitter.com/tomaskenn/status/1220217633062248448

Courage, friends.

Lindsay Graham (R-GA) (!) appears to be in the "45 did something wrong, but the voters should decide if that matters" camp???

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/479598-graham-schiff-well-spoken-did-a-good-job?amp

Additional cause for some small hope: an actual majority of even viewers of the other lesser Fox News think that Russia, not Ukraine, interfered in 2016: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/trump-impeachment-senate-trial-live-01-22/252723/

A good summary of what went on when in Ukraine Clown Posse: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/trump-impeachment-senate-trial-live-01-22/252721/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1auW9m_Oxbs PBS Newshour > CBS

Like, yes, everything is awful, but everything is awful and *loud*, and IMO these things operate like emotions - intensity and valence are separate. The situation is loud and hot and that means that things can change on a dime, once we pass what little buffer there is.

I'm gonna make the spicy prediction that at least one Republican votes to impeach on at least one article. Probably Collins, if anyone.

Also recall: double jeopardy doesn't apply here, and none of the penalties are criminal ones. 45 can TOTALLY be tried - and IS being tried - for numerous actual crimes, and there's no way that's not going to land without actual, everyday, bare-metal rule of law just collapsing.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/trump-impeachment-senate-trial-live-01-22/252671/

A strong point here - even though the GOP will almost certainly vote along more or less party lines to acquit, whether the public believes their defense of him as having done nothing wrong or instead decide that no, actually, he did a LOT wrong, the GOP just sucks... is still kinda undecided, and is still very much in flux.

Recall that even though 45's almost certainly going to be acquitted, everything crooked that the GOP is doing here is going to harm their legitimacy with everyone outside their base.