Fox Thirty Eight 🦊🌹 @fox_news@mastodon.social

S: Bernie
A: (none)
B: Warren
C/D: (also none)
F: Klobuchar, Steyer
Z: Buttigieg, Biden, Bloomberg

Dream tickets: Bernie/Booker, /Abrams. Risky pick: /Tlaib. /Turner would be incestuous. /Warren is still likely impossible.

@starkatt all the same, here at Fox News, we AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

Current forecasts: (2/6/2019)

-Bernie wins the primary and general (greater confidence)

-the Levant continues to be a human rights crisis but Rojava clings to life

-US recession starting around 6/2020 (bond yield inversion curve signal is too strong and acts switchlike)

-China finally gets fed up and crushes HK bloodily

-Climate crisis is thoroughly managed decline but remains fixable?

-Coronavirus has only minor effects

I should put more thought into this later but required reading:

Nonzero
Debt (The First 5k Years)
Guns, Germs, and Steel
It Could Happen Here (podcast, very heavy)
Seeing Like A State
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Predictably Irrational
538, Vox, WSJ (economics only), NYT and WaPo to see what the centrists and liberals think
... more I can't easily remember, open to suggestions

For political events whose analysis occurred before December 1, 2019, please search for uspol/pol/dem debate CWs on @CoronaCoreanici .

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483579-buttigieg-sanders-separated-by-sliver-in-iowa-after-recanvass

TIME FOR A RECOUNT

like, fuck me, if this is half as bad as it looks like it's going to be for China, it's going to make 2009 look like a failed bake sale

Yup. OK. This is the big one. Chinese companies can't even afford to pay workers right now.

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1229959121450913792

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51527042?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social

I don't know about you, but I feel like looking into light surface-to-air ordnance about now.

Some of you might remember that the caucus was set to start on the 16th and take about two days. Surprise! It's been two days, because linear time.

And with a decent chunk of the recanvass left to go, Bernie has already closed ~95% of the previously official gap.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1229926712865181696

https://results.thecaucuses.org/

Like, the UK handed the dumbest possible casus belli for trade war to Brussels on a silver godsdamn platter, and this is specifically, deliberately, an action in that war, and a deliberate national humiliation.

just

you fuckin LOVE to see it happen, for so many reasons

Greece has managed to get the EU to include the repatriation of the Elgin Marbles as part of the terms of trade with the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/greece-gets-elgin-marbles-included-in-eu-trade-deal-demands-sz5vdh5wd

Bloomberg has qualified for tomorrow night's debate. I dunno about you, but I'm breaking out the popcorn for this one.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/6-candidates-have-made-the-nevada-debate-including-bloomberg/

Kickstarter United has won its union election.

https://twitter.com/LaurenKGurley/status/1229796892302827520

The Dairy Farmers of America, a farmer's cooperative, have submitted a buyout of Dean Foods, the largest dairy producer in the US, for $425M. Dean Foods had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy a few months ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/dairy-farmers-of-america-agrees-to-buy-dean-foods-americas-biggest-milk-producer-for-425-million.html

h/t @flake

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1229771949909446658

Abrams defends Bloomberg and as such is no longer a dream VP pick.

The Boy Scouts of America have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/Boy%20Scouts%20chapter%2011%20petition.pdf?mod=article_inline

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-boy-scouts-of-america-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-to-equitably-compensate-victims-while-ensuring-scouting-continues-across-the-country-301006379.html

https://www.bsarestructuring.org/an-open-letter-to-victims-from-the-boy-scouts-of-america/

Vox has a pretty good piece on a strong new strategy on rejecting the previously-thought-binary choice between a focus on racial justice, and an eschewing of this for pure economic populism. Looks like the liberals - and perhaps even centrists - are starting to get it!

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/18/21116867/ian-haney-lopez-merge-left-race-class-project-trump-racism-dog-whistles-2020-democrats

I'm proctoring an exam on Wednesday, so I might have to get started a little late!

Friends can have little a uncritical good news. You know, as a treat. https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/02/17/bernie-sanders-nevada-breaks-pack-115450