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Not worried enough about corporate over-development of orbit yet? New article: companies have now filed asking for a total of ONE MILLION satellites: science.org/doi/10.1126/scienc

Non-paywalled version here: outerspaceinstitute.ca/docs/On

There is no way we can have anywhere near one million satellites in orbit without going into full Kessler Syndrome and destroying everything in orbit - making satellite science, communication, and interplanetary exploration impossible for decades.

@sundogplanets It’s rather centuries, not decades. At 1000 km a satellite stays up there for 1000 years.

@jknodlseder @sundogplanets Orbital lifetime up that high depends a lot on eccentricity (higher e meaning more drag at perigee) and inclination, right?

e.g. I recall discussions about deliberately disposing of MEO satellites by inducing eccentricity oscillations.

But that supposes that the operator of the satellite acts responsibly. Which neither Starlink nor the various other aspiring LEO megaconstellations are.

Steffen Christensen

@michael_w_busch @jknodlseder @sundogplanets If only there were a sufficiently well-resourced space agency that had regulatory oversight capabilities and could look ahead 30 years or so for the welfare of all humanity.

Oh well. Kessler it is, then.

@Wikisteff @jknodlseder My assumption has been that the money backing LEO megaconstellation plans will eventually be cut off - Starlink has run through a few billion dollars and is losing hundreds of millions per year; OneWeb as it now exists has bankrupted multiple companies; etc. ( The article @sundogplanets linked does emphasize overfiling.)

But that's in no way an excuse for the failure of regulation.

Especially since when a company goes bankrupt, who becomes liable for the satellites?

@michael_w_busch @jknodlseder @sundogplanets I wonder who you can sue when your firm's LEO satellite gets Kesslered?

@Wikisteff @jknodlseder @sundogplanets If there is no company to sue; you can sue the country that the spacecraft was launched from - but only if your own country lets you do that: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Li

So, for example, when AST SpaceMobile goes bankrupt; if its satellite hits something belonging to someone from the United States, it is not obvious that they would be able to sue anyone.

en.wikipedia.orgSpace Liability Convention - Wikipedia

@michael_w_busch @Wikisteff @jknodlseder @sundogplanets I'd like to note that this is all a bit untested: law is rarely created and refined before it's needed.
So they *will* be able to sue if some court will hear the case; and whatever the outcome, someone *will* be able to appeal if some other court will hear THAT. And while it is all happening, legislative bodies will argue endlessly and possibly pass laws that possibly (but not likely) address the case at hand and after a couple of these shows have played out precedents will have been established that some future litigation may or may not consider binding. 🤷
As the law always seems to go...