The XBB.1.5 "updated" Covid vaccine booster provided ~54% increased protection *against symptomatic infections* (including vs. JN.1 variant) compared with not getting it.
@erictopol How long does the vaccine last, and will there be an updated version for the spring?
Short answer is "Studies suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are most effective during the first three months after vaccination”
Longer answer is more complicated. A meta-analysis found that protection was about 30% 9 months after a booster:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2804451
@peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol
This being so, what is the optimal interval for the next #booster shot, if you had all up to last year if you are not in a particularly vulnerable group, still 6 months?
@HistoPol @peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol #COVID You asked what the optimal time is for the next booster?
Based on the 54% effectiveness reported for JN.1 at 2 months, a shot a month should about do it, provided FDA and CDC would allow it.
The current vaccine is no longer effective for personal protection, other than against severe disease and death. And that won't last 6 months either. More likely 3.
It is essential to take other measures to protect yourself ( masks and isolation).
@samohTmaS
"Based on the 54% effectiveness reported for JN.1 at 2 months, a shot a month should about do it, provided FDA and CDC would allow it. "
Apart from a probably increasing vaccination risk, would there even be a new vaccine (variant) every month?
If your probability holds true, 54% at 2 months, 30% after 9 months is astonishingly good still.
@HistoPol @peterbutler @c_merriweather @erictopol
Variants are constantly developing. And hybrids. That is what this virus does - mutate and hybridize. To be far enough different to be a problem takes many months - usually. No guarantees.
It would be ridiculous to do monthly vaccination. But that is just a measure about how inadequate this vaccine is now - six months since it was released.
We need new vaccines more frequently to keep up with the virus. And to be over 90% effective.