Tropical Storm Milton forms in Gulf of Mexico, forecast to hit Florida as hurricane
Milton might make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane or stronger.
Please stay safe
" TD 14 is expected to intensify into #HurricaneMilton by Monday, and potentially make landfall on #Florida’s west coast as a major hurricane on Wednesday. "
"Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to become a Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 120 mph before it makes landfall. Sarasota and Manatee counties are currently directly in the storm's forecast track. Landfall is currently expected on Wednesday."
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/weather/hurricane/2024/10/06/live-potential-hurricane-milton-sarasota-bradenton-in-track/75542947007/
#HurricaneMilton
“Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified into a category 5 hurricane, just two days before it is due to make landfall in Florida.
As evacuation orders were issued, forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/07/hurricane-milton-florida-evacuation
"MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in #Tampa is the “black swan” worst-case scenario that experts have worried about for years.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition.” "
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/what-makes-tampa-especially-vulnerable-to-hurricanes-right-now
Now add #ClimateChange supercharging the rainfall, the wind speeds, and the storm surge.
#HurricaneMilton
#HurricaneMilton forecast to grow in size:
"Milton has strengthened back into a Category 5 hurricane. Even though it is forecast to weaken before it makes landfall, it will double in size — meaning its disastrous impacts will be felt over a much larger area. Over the past 24 hours, the tropical-storm force winds expanded from 80 miles to 140 miles from its center."
https://edition.cnn.com/weather/live-news/hurricane-milton-florida-10-09-24/index.html
Hurricane Milton's rapid intensification is part of a climate-fueled trend
"The term “#RapidIntensification” describes an increase in sustained wind speeds of at least 35 mph over a 24-hour period, according to the National Hurricane Center.
#HurricaneMilton has obliterated that minimum, undergoing “extreme rapid intensification”: Its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 90 mph in roughly 25 hours, according to the nonprofit research group Climate Central."
"Warm water fuels hurricanes. It’s crucial that the surface water be at least 79 degrees (26 C) and it helps incredibly when there’s deep warm water.
The water at Milton’s birth and along its path was around 87 degrees (30.5 C). That’s almost 2 degrees (1 C) warmer than normal and near record levels, both on the surface and deep, McNoldy said.
“Part of the reason it was so warm is because of global warming,” Vecchi said."
https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-milton-florida-unusual-strong-warm-water-helene-0dd01c0e79d888dbda2a96b68fb62a29
#HurricaneMilton
"More than three million people are currently without power in Florida.
#HurricaneMilton made landfall as a Category 3 storm near Siesta Key, Florida."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/10/millions-without-power-in-florida-after-hurricane-milton.html
"Milton marks a rare fifth hurricane to make US landfall in a year.
Only a handful of years — including 2024 — have recorded five or more landfalling hurricanes since 1851."
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/10/weather/map-charts-milton-hurricane-dg/index.html
Of the nine years that saw four or more hurricane landfalls, two were in the late 1800s, three in the 1900s, and four since 2000. And it's only 2024.
"#Tornadoes most frequently form within the thunderstorms embedded in the #hurricane’s outer rain bands, far from the storm’s eye, due in part to the increased instability there.
Climate change does not necessarily have a direct causal link to the tornadoes. Rather, the well-documented association between warmer sea surface temperatures and heightened hurricane intensity make the conditions that lead to the tornadoes more likely. "
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4927302-hurricane-milton-tornadoes-climate-change/
Yet another hurricane wetter, windier and more destructive because of #ClimateChange
"Without climate change #HurricaneMilton would have been a Category 2 rather than a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall. "
@CelloMomOnCars “black swan"? We have known for 30 years that #GlobalWarming will increase storm intensity, How can this be called a "black swan"? The only thing the models got wrong was to underestimate the sheer levels of fossil carbon releases, after the warnings were sounded...
that "black swan" terminology is problematic.
But what's really different is not just more intense storms but this "rapid intensification" factor that climate change is giving us — I read a study last year where they started documenting how storms have been getting worse MUCH FASTER than expected. On top of the general "increased storm intensity" from warmer waters. We have to educate people that these can get crazy dangerous overnight.
https://grist.org/extreme-weather/hurricane-milton-exploded-intensification-storm/
@susankayequinn Thanks, that's an interesting read
@CelloMomOnCars
@susankayequinn @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars I need to understand better. This is the context in which I learned it - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
What's problematic about the term? I've missed something.
@susankayequinn @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars
"that "black swan" terminology is problematic. "
Not come across that suggestion before - why's that?
@RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42
"Black swan" is unforeseen & unforeseeable, hard to predict & rare.
A catastrophically large storm like Milton hitting a populated city like Tampa is not only predictable (climate change), it is no longer rare (and will be more frequent). It's not "unforeseen"—climate scientists have predicted intensifying storms forever&they've ALSO been predicting/observing the "rapid intensification" factor that makes storms turn into monsters overnight
@susankayequinn @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42
Ah! Spot on, thank you!
@RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42
Here's that study I referenced before from 2023: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2
@susankayequinn @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars Okay, not the term, just the applicability. That makes so much more sense now, thank you!
@gooba42 @susankayequinn @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars
Susan is right to note the difference, people were debating about terms back during the start of the pandemic and arguing some things are 'white swan' events or a 'black elephant' where many know such an event could happen.
The other term for #hurricanemilton is compound climate: https://mastodon.world/@andrewdessler/113267727086037620
@susankayequinn @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42
If you talk to Taleb or read his writing he says Black Swans are impossible to predict not just hard to predict.
That is no method (computation) can be used to predict a Black Swan event.
Obviously weather forecasting and climate forecasting exist, suggesting that climate related events cannot be Black Swans in general.
@dangrsmind @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars @gooba42
I think we *can* have climate-related Black Swan events because weather/climate forecasting is by no means perfect or able to predict everything that the climate weirding will throw at us — but we have to be careful not to call "unpredictable!" and "who could have seen this coming??" things that are literally being predicted
@susankayequinn @dangrsmind @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding @CelloMomOnCars We can 100% predict things will break. We can't reliably predict which things.
@gooba42 @susankayequinn @dangrsmind @RhinosWorryMe @kim_harding
Maybe rather than a "black swan", it's the "It happens but not to me" effect.
I'm still on the lack of preparedness.
And certainly the rapid intensification makes it hard for anyone to be prepared, but the suggestion in the article is also that Tampa residents have started to think that they will be forever spared being hit by a hurricane.
@CelloMomOnCars @gooba42 @susankayequinn @dangrsmind @kim_harding
Re: "Maybe rather than a "black swan", it's the "It happens but not to me" effect."
Like "I never thought leopards would eat *my* face!, cries society powered by leopard pheromones"?
@RhinosWorryMe @CelloMomOnCars @susankayequinn @dangrsmind @kim_harding It's the same first world privilege that made 9/11 such a big deal to us.
These things don't happen *here*, not to *us*.
Watching *every* global disaster on TV and seeing so few of them right outside our window gives us an illusion of safety when it's mostly just been dumb luck.
I guess it's a black swan in the sense that people think, erroneously, that it will never happen, just because they have themselves never seen it happen.
Hence the other half of this: Tampa residents are unprepared.
it's *their* black swan.
But #Trump said there is no global warming especially it is not related to humans. He said hurricanes ar controlled by the Biden administration and Kamala Harris