Poll added in PA:
Rasmussen
2024-10-09 to 2024-10-13
Harris 47.0%
Trump 50.0%
New PA average:
Harris up by 0.2% (Weak Harris)
[Harris 47.8%, Trump 47.7%]
New odds with 20.6 days left:
Harris 33.7%, Trump 66.3%
New odds if the election was now:
Harris 38.3%, Trump 61.7%
More info:
https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/polldata.php?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&State=PA&ts=1729063926
What happens when you take the red wave polls out?
https://mastodon.online/@mastodonmigration/113296120769229050
@Deixis9 @mastodonmigration Excellent Question.
Using PA as an example and using 528's pollster ratings (scores from 0 to 3), and only including pollsters above various ratings, using the same averaging methodology otherwise:
My Current Avg: Harris by 0.1%
Only 1.5 and Above: Harris by 0.4%
Only 2.0 and Above: Harris by 0.8%
Only 2.5 and Above: Harris by 1.5%
Since my averages are “last 5 polls”, the more restrictive you are, the longer a time period would be included in the average.
@Deixis9 @mastodonmigration I looked into this more deeply in the blog post I just put out. Mentioned your question. Thanks for the inspiration! https://electiongraphs.com/blog/2024/10/25/12-days-out-what-about-junk-polls/
