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- This doesn't mean we're out of the woods with this surge and that it's safe to ignore COVID (as almost everyone is.) For example, here in Wisconsin, COVID in wastewater is still rising at an alarming rate--up 80% in two weeks. Check whatever data is available in your neck of the woods, please. https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/wastewater.htm

- While the end of this surge may be a couple of weeks off nationally, please appreciate the risks are high and still rising. The CDC data on positive rate is at the third-highest level of the pandemic, and a respected immunologist estimates one of every 53 Americans is infected with #COVID currently. And with the number of new variants, it's possible the end of this surge will just be a pause before the fall wave ignites in around six weeks. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_testpositivity_00

- This is some mixed news about the B.2.86 variant that has been creating headlines lately. It continues to be found in more states and nations, suggesting widespread transmission. But, a study has found this variant may have LOWER infectivity while defeating a huge amount of immunity protection. This variant may not create a giant new surge, but it is a risk to people who think they're immune (and the new fall vaccine may not be as effective at preventing infections). https://original.newsbreak.com/@shin-561334/3143659382917-pirola-ba-2-86-variant-is-actually-less-infectious-than-eris-eg-5-and-xbb-1-5-new-data

- That isn't the end of the story for BA.2.86, however. This variant made a significant evolutionary jump, likely because it mutated within the body of a single chronically ill person. That means natural selection fine-tuned the virus to survive in that one person, but now that's it in the wild and spreading between people, natural selection will push the virus to be more infectious to everyone else.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pirola-ba-2-86-may-150546705.html

And because we're all so busy pretending COVID is over, we are encouraging a high level of infection and rapid mutation. BA.2.86 is already mutating, and experts are particularly worried about the risk of recombinant variants between B.2.86 and XBB variants causing surges presently. If we reduced infections, we'd slow the rate of mutation of #COVID19; instead, our normal behaviors are simply creating high rates of evolution which can (and undoubtedly will) lead to more dangerous COVID variants.

- While it's difficult to prevent any infection, a new study suggests being a little cautious can go a long way to keeping you and those you love safe. The study found that the amount of #COVID19 to which you're exposed matters. People with hybrid immunity (both prior infection and vaccinations) are generally safe if exposure is low to moderate, but are NOT protected from infection if exposure is high. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02715-1

What this means is that a quick trip to an uncrowded store or time spent at an outdoor festival is pretty safe. But, a long period of time indoors in crowded concerts, conferences, classrooms, and bars is not, even for those with hybrid immunity. Ventilation, filtration, density of crowds, length of time, and NPIs like masks all still matter as we approach the fourth anniversary of the continuing pandemic.

- Risks are not equal from one person to another. If you have risk factors (or live with those who do), be more careful. For example, a study found that while the general population saw more COVID-19 deaths during the early period of the pandemic, cancer patients saw deaths peak during the Omicron surge. This isn't because Omicron was more dangerous to cancer patients but that, as we all relaxed cautions, more cancer patients were exposed to a dangerous virus. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cancer-patients-saw-higher-mortality-covid-19

- Being healthier means you're less likely to suffer consequences but is no guarantee. A new study of elite aquatic athletes at an event last summer found that half were infected at the event. “Most athletes experienced a 'benign' disease course, but reinfections occurred in 13%, and 10% of initial infections led to long #COVID19.” One in ten elite athletes struggled with Long COVID symptoms, including fatigue (65%) and shortness of breath (48%).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-40821-2

Another study found that “Left ventricular filling, inflammation, blood coagulation, and hemoglobin appear to be influenced by #COVID19 infection in healthy participants” (https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/8/1623). Please don't pretend you're too young or healthy to worry about the implications of COVID infection.

- Lastly, as I am always warning, the primary risks of #COVID19
are no longer severe, acute illness and death but that repeated infections are slowly wreaking more havoc within our bodies, leading to disabilities, diminished health, and shortened lifespans. Studies continue to find links between COVID and neurodegenerative diseases (like Alzheimer's), changes in brains and hearts, and possibly cancer. Studies demonstrate the more you get COVID, the higher the risk. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3

A little caution today could prevent illness and disability in the future. The world changed in 2020 when a new virus was introduced. That virus continues to spread and mutate. We are years away from knowing all the implications of repeated infection. If you wear a seatbelt or a bike helmet to reduce the minimal risk from accidents, you should have the same caution about exposing yourself to more COVID infections. A few smarter decisions and a bit more masking might make all the difference!

@augieray
We just got back from a trip to a conference in Tokyo. We wore masks in the airports and during flights and everywhere we went indoors there (and many of the Japanese were wearing also).
We got home and two days later learned that a colleague who attended the same conference tested positive (her roommate did not) Coincidental that we planned to test on that same day. We did, then again two days later and came up negative..
I would say masking can be affective.

@augieray @leftylabourtech - too bad deniers are the obstacle in keeping the lid on spreading #covid19 - as long as they exist there will be very little chances to create preventive measures nationwide

@BroGle @augieray The neo-liberal way in which the pandemic was largely handled contributed to the creation of the COVID deniers and the anti-vaxxers.

There is no anti-vaxxer movement in Cuba because the state developed it's own COVID-19 vaccines outside of big pharma profiteering. Cuba is one of the most vaccinated countries on the planet.

@bytebro I'm with you, but I'm trying to influence others' behaviors and not just the people already cautious.

@maggiemaybe I generally agree with you, but since almost no one is listening, I try to give advice that people will take. Tell people they need to mask everywhere, and they tune out. I'd rather help people to understand and minimize risks in a way they'll accept.

@augieray @maggiemaybe there's only one way to get people to understand what this virus really is, and that's by not compromising on the truth, imo. If they accept a watered down version of the truth so that they mask sometimes, but go on to misunderstand the actual threat, their watered down approach is susceptible to fall apart in line with that misunderstanding

@currentbias @augieray yeah my previous best friend got Covid for the first time in August 2021 because she thought it was safe she just run into the grocery store without a mask since she was vaccinated. I was glad I didn’t fall for that, it’s a shame she got infected in the few short months it took for the CDC to admit that the shots don’t actually prevent infection.

@maggiemaybe @augieray yep, and I know of people who "always mask indoors" but then take off their mask to eat a sandwich, not realizing they are inhaling (and exhaling) aerosols while doing that, because exceptions for eating and drinking were built into mask mandates

The virus is an opportunist, and requires a proportional level of vigilance. Half measures are its best friend

Uncool to just go around talking about how great it is that you can control people's bodies and force them to get sick.

Especially as someone doing public health or medical research--harm should be treated as though it's grave because it IS--and it should be actively avoided and prevented, not celebrated.

Ghoulish.