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@jfreebo @Dseitz Hard to say but my hunch is probably hurts if it happens preemptively, helps if it happens any time after that?

@misc @Dseitz I can think of some reasons for helping later, but why do you think preemption hurts meta?

(if you don’t find this useful or interesting, no worries about replying )

@jfreebo @Dseitz It's not a strong hunch but I think if mastodon.social preemptively blocked, it would influence even more to follow, and you'd have such a small group of instances going forward with it, that Meta would likely scrap the whole plan. It would just be embarrassing at that point. And then they'd be back looking for a Plan B to placate regulators, having wasted a bunch of resources and public credibility on Plan A.

@jfreebo @Dseitz Not saying it would hurt them that much, but since they've invested something in this, I would consider gaining nothing from it to be a harm.

@misc @Dseitz that makes sense - if the greater ‘mastosphere’ blocks, then what’s the point? which makes me wonder if gab (or whatever hellsite is still around) will go to AP - will threads federate with them?

anyway - good on ya for trying to strategize. there's too much reflexive action without thinking things through here.

@jfreebo @misc

Probably it makes the most sense to monitor new instances and servers coming online after Threads federates, especially ones heavy on the stuff that's a no-no on Threads.

Masto on its own is defense against regulators; if people don't like Threads they can just jump to another instance. FB is likely counting on open source infighting keeping Masto from being a truly viable competitor and to be honest, that's not a bad bet.

@jfreebo @misc

I'm also about to crack open "Broken Code," the more recent book about FB that doesn't treat Zuck like an omniscient money-god but the legit clueless fuckup surrounded by other fuckups anybody who's dealt with FB for any length of time knows the organization actually is.

@Dseitz @jfreebo That's an interesting theory - so they might even get more aggressive about moderation about stuff they host, but be very lax about federation standards. Like maybe federating but simply limiting hard right instances?

@misc @jfreebo

They may claim grander intent but when it comes down to it, what draws eyeballs is weird comedy, cute animals, naked people, and political arguments, all of which various world governments hate to varying degrees (yes, even cute animals.)

@Dseitz @jfreebo Interesting to see Threads and Bluesky as solving for the same problem. How can we get out of the moderation business without giving up all the stuff that brings us those juicy eyeballs?

@Dseitz @jfreebo (Though in Bluesky's case I sense there is more ideology to it)

@Dseitz @misc I can’t help but think that some of this is an experiment to see how they can wrap the business model around an open protocol, which is what the metaverse is said to be. (no I don’t believe the metaverse will be real, etc.)

@jfreebo @misc

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